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After the books closed

After the books closed: the quarter's biggest news happened too late to be in the numbers

Calls Tested
497
Answered YES
13
Hit Rate
2.6%
rare by design

BP p.l.c. (BP) — this company's answers

NO on the Q4 2016 call 2017-02-07 B+
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2016 call → NO我们根据提供的财报电话会议记录,判断管理层是否报告了最重要的积极发展发生在报告期后期或之后,以至于结果几乎没有包含这些影响,并且管理层自己强调了这种时间安排。 关键点:管理层是否明确提到“在季度末或之后发生的具体积极事件”,并且这些事件是“已发生或正在进行”的,而不是“预期”的,同时管理层认为这些事件对公司的当前轨迹很重要,而报告的数字没有反映出来。 在记录中,管理层提到了许多在2016年第四季度或之后发生的交易和项目启动。例如: - 2016年12月,Thunder Horse South Expansion提前启动。 - 2016年底,宣布了多项交易:ADCO特许权、毛里塔尼亚和塞内加尔发现、Zohr股份、阿曼Khazzan二期、阿塞拜疆ACG延期、Woolworths合作等。 - 这些交易大多在第四季度或之后宣布,但管理层是否明确表示这些事件发生在报告期后期,且报告结果没有反映它们? 在电话会议中,Bob Dudley说:“我们在2016年第四季度和之后有很多活动。”他提到“我们在2016年最后一个季度有很多公告。”但更具体的是,Brian Gilvary在讨论2017年展望时提到,这些交易将影响2017年的资本支出和现金流。然而,管理层是否明确说“这些事件发生在报告期后期,所以第四季度结果没有反映它们”? 在回答关于现金流的提问时,Brian说:“我们退出2016年,运行约178亿美元,剔除营运资本释放……如果油价保持当前水平,大约增加40亿美元……然后阿布扎比部分进入,今年现金增值……我们还有合理化支出……我们还有产量和利润率改善……所以今年现金约210-220亿美元。”这暗示2017年将受益于这些交易,但并没有明确说第四季度结果没有反映它们。 管理层确实强调了2016年第四季度是“繁忙的季度”,并提到了许多交易,但并没有明确说这些交易发生在报告期后期,以至于第四季度结果没有包含它们。相反,他们将这些交易视为2017年及以后的增长动力。 此外,关于项目启动,Thunder Horse South Expansion在12月启动,但管理层将其列为2016年的成就,并没有说它发生在后期以至于结果没有反映。 因此,我认为管理层没有明确强调“这些积极事件发生在报告期后期,所以结果没有反映它们”这一观点。他们只是提到了这些事件,但并没有将时间作为解释结果与当前轨迹差异的主要因素。 所以答案应为NO。

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented contain little or none of their effect — with management itself marking the timing? Answer YES when management's own words convey, in whatever form fits the business, ONE coherent situation with BOTH halves present: (1) LATE-BREAKING, CONCRETE POSITIVE EVENTS. Management points to specific favorable developments that actually occurred near the end of the reported period or in the weeks since it closed — real events, not hopes or pipeline. The events may take whatever form fits the industry: a contract, order, customer, or program signed or won late in the period or after quarter-end; a facility, location, product, or service that opened, launched, or shipped its first volumes in the final stretch or just afterward; an approval, certification, or qualification obtained late that has already begun converting into business; a large customer that went live, began ordering, or expanded right at the close or since; an acquisition or capability completed at or after period-end that is now operating. What matters is that management itself anchors the timing — saying in substance 'late in the quarter,' 'in the final weeks,' 'at the very end of the period,' 'since quarter-end,' 'subsequent to the close,' 'just after the period ended,' or equivalent — for events that are described as done or now happening, not merely expected. (2) MANAGEMENT TREATS THEM AS THE REAL STORY THE NUMBERS MISSED. Management conveys, directly or plainly in substance, that because of this timing the reported results reflect little or none of these developments — and treats them as consequential to where the company is now heading, for example by discussing how they will contribute in coming periods, how the company is now delivering or ramping them, or by contrasting the period's reported figures with the level of business the company is already doing as it exits. The late events should be presented as meaningful relative to the company's current size — capable of changing its trajectory — rather than as routine items in a long list. Answer NO if the period's positive developments are described as spread across the quarter in the ordinary way, with no emphasis on late or post-period timing. NO if the late-dated items are only letters of intent, negotiations, pipeline, expected signings, or events still contingent on approvals, financing, or decisions not yet made. NO if the late events are routine in scale for this company — the normal cadence of wins or openings it always reports — with no sense that they change its level of business. NO if management mentions timing only as an excuse for weak results without concrete late-arriving positives now in hand. NO if the post-period mention is a boilerplate subsequent-events disclosure that management does not connect to the company's trajectory. NO if the timing framing appears only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself affirm. Use only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. Q4 2023 2024-03-21 C+
KOPN Kopin Corporation Q4 2023 2024-03-14 C+
SCPH scPharmaceuticals Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-08 B
NBTX Nanobiotix S.A. Q2 2023 2023-09-27 D
SWBI Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Q1 2023 2022-09-08 C+
YMM Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. Q2 2022 2022-08-25 C+
VNRX VolitionRx Limited Q1 2022 2022-05-12 F
OPK OPKO Health, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-09 D
BFIN BankFinancial Corporation Q1 2022 2022-05-06 A
RNW ReNew Energy Global Plc Q2 2022 2021-11-18 C
BFI BurgerFi International, Inc. Q3 2021 2021-11-12 C
LIND Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. Q2 2017 2017-08-06 C
PLAB Photronics, Inc. Q2 2017 2017-05-17 C+

How the model reasoned

OPK · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...YES The transcript shows management treating the ModeX acquisition (announced and closed on the call date, May 9) and the Sema4/GeneDx deal (closed April 29) as major positive developments that occurred after the Q1 period ended. These are framed as key steps toward unlocking value and are highlighted as the "exciting announcement" that changed the call format.
RNW · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...YES The transcript shows management explicitly marking the timing of key positive developments: 400 MW commissioned "since the end of the quarter" (bringing operating capacity to 7 GW today, with another 400 MW scheduled "over the next couple of weeks"), plus the completed Telangana acquisition adding 260 MW.
ASM · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.