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After the books closed

After the books closed: the quarter's biggest news happened too late to be in the numbers

Calls Tested
497
Answered YES
13
Hit Rate
2.6%
rare by design

Phillips 66 (PSX) — this company's answers

NO on the Q4 2016 call 2017-02-03 C+
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2016 call → NO我们根据提供的财报电话会议记录,判断管理层是否报告了最重要的积极发展发生在报告期很晚或之后不久,以至于结果几乎没有包含其影响,且管理层自己指出了这一时间点。 关键点:管理层是否提到具体、已发生的积极事件,发生在季度末或之后,且这些事件对当前业务有重大影响,而报告数字未能反映。 在记录中: - 关于Freeport LPG出口终端:管理层提到“我们在12月中旬运送了第一批商业货物,预计本月将接近满负荷装载。” 这是12月中旬,即第四季度末。管理层还提到“在第四季度,我们完成了最大的下拉,向PSXP贡献了13亿美元的物流资产。” 但这是资产转移,不是运营事件。 - 关于Beaumont码头扩建:管理层提到“我们在第四季度投入了120万桶合同原油储存,另外200万桶原油和产品储存预计将在年中前可用。” 这是第四季度的事件,但未强调为“晚”或“之后”。 - 关于DCP重组:管理层提到“今年年初,DCP Midstream将其资产和现有债务贡献给其MLP”,这是年初,即报告期之后。 - 关于化工项目:管理层提到“聚乙烯装置有望在2017年年中启动,乙烷裂解装置在2017年第四季度。” 这些是未来事件,不是已发生的。 - 关于炼油项目:管理层提到“Billings炼油厂项目预计今年上半年完成”,也是未来。 管理层是否明确表示这些事件发生在报告期很晚或之后,且报告结果未反映其影响?在回答中,管理层提到“我们预计该设施本月将接近满负荷装载”,但未明确说第四季度结果未反映其影响。关于DCP重组,管理层说“今年年初”发生,但未说第四季度结果未反映。 管理层在讨论第四季度业绩时,提到了“市场条件持续具有挑战性”,并提到“重大周转”等,但未将积极发展作为“报告数字未反映”的要点。 在问答环节,有分析师问及Freeport贡献,管理层回答“在第四季度,我们完成了...”,但未强调时间点。 因此,没有明确的管理层陈述表明最重要的积极发展发生在报告期很晚或之后,且结果未反映其影响。管理层提到的积极事件(如LPG终端启动)发生在12月中旬,但未说结果未反映,且这些事件可能已部分反映在第四季度(因为12月有收入)。此外,管理层未将任何事件描述为“报告数字未反映”的“真实故事”。 因此,答案应为NO。

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented contain little or none of their effect — with management itself marking the timing? Answer YES when management's own words convey, in whatever form fits the business, ONE coherent situation with BOTH halves present: (1) LATE-BREAKING, CONCRETE POSITIVE EVENTS. Management points to specific favorable developments that actually occurred near the end of the reported period or in the weeks since it closed — real events, not hopes or pipeline. The events may take whatever form fits the industry: a contract, order, customer, or program signed or won late in the period or after quarter-end; a facility, location, product, or service that opened, launched, or shipped its first volumes in the final stretch or just afterward; an approval, certification, or qualification obtained late that has already begun converting into business; a large customer that went live, began ordering, or expanded right at the close or since; an acquisition or capability completed at or after period-end that is now operating. What matters is that management itself anchors the timing — saying in substance 'late in the quarter,' 'in the final weeks,' 'at the very end of the period,' 'since quarter-end,' 'subsequent to the close,' 'just after the period ended,' or equivalent — for events that are described as done or now happening, not merely expected. (2) MANAGEMENT TREATS THEM AS THE REAL STORY THE NUMBERS MISSED. Management conveys, directly or plainly in substance, that because of this timing the reported results reflect little or none of these developments — and treats them as consequential to where the company is now heading, for example by discussing how they will contribute in coming periods, how the company is now delivering or ramping them, or by contrasting the period's reported figures with the level of business the company is already doing as it exits. The late events should be presented as meaningful relative to the company's current size — capable of changing its trajectory — rather than as routine items in a long list. Answer NO if the period's positive developments are described as spread across the quarter in the ordinary way, with no emphasis on late or post-period timing. NO if the late-dated items are only letters of intent, negotiations, pipeline, expected signings, or events still contingent on approvals, financing, or decisions not yet made. NO if the late events are routine in scale for this company — the normal cadence of wins or openings it always reports — with no sense that they change its level of business. NO if management mentions timing only as an excuse for weak results without concrete late-arriving positives now in hand. NO if the post-period mention is a boilerplate subsequent-events disclosure that management does not connect to the company's trajectory. NO if the timing framing appears only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself affirm. Use only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. Q4 2023 2024-03-21 C+
KOPN Kopin Corporation Q4 2023 2024-03-14 C+
SCPH scPharmaceuticals Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-08 B
NBTX Nanobiotix S.A. Q2 2023 2023-09-27 D
SWBI Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Q1 2023 2022-09-08 C+
YMM Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. Q2 2022 2022-08-25 C+
VNRX VolitionRx Limited Q1 2022 2022-05-12 F
OPK OPKO Health, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-09 D
BFIN BankFinancial Corporation Q1 2022 2022-05-06 A
RNW ReNew Energy Global Plc Q2 2022 2021-11-18 C
BFI BurgerFi International, Inc. Q3 2021 2021-11-12 C
LIND Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. Q2 2017 2017-08-06 C
PLAB Photronics, Inc. Q2 2017 2017-05-17 C+

How the model reasoned

OPK · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...YES The transcript shows management treating the ModeX acquisition (announced and closed on the call date, May 9) and the Sema4/GeneDx deal (closed April 29) as major positive developments that occurred after the Q1 period ended. These are framed as key steps toward unlocking value and are highlighted as the "exciting announcement" that changed the call format.
RNW · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...YES The transcript shows management explicitly marking the timing of key positive developments: 400 MW commissioned "since the end of the quarter" (bringing operating capacity to 7 GW today, with another 400 MW scheduled "over the next couple of weeks"), plus the completed Telangana acquisition adding 260 MW.
ASM · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.