Already inside the gate: the company is specified into someone else's next wave, and the wave has not yet shipped
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2019 call → NOWe need to determine if the transcript describes a situation where the company (Autodesk) has already been chosen, specified, qualified, designed in, or locked into position inside another organization's future product, program, platform, build-out, or standard operating plan, such that when that outside party's own next wave of activity arrives, Autodesk's volume arrives with it automatically. And management conveys that this position is secured today while the wave itself has not yet shipped, launched, ramped, or begun at scale. Let's analyze the transcript. The main topics are: Q3 results, PlanGrid acquisition, BIM 360, EBAs, etc. The question is about a specific situation: Autodesk being inside someone else's next thing. The transcript mentions many things: EBAs with large customers like Ford, Daiwa House, etc. But are those examples of Autodesk being designed into a counterparty's future product? For example, Ford is transitioning to an EBA, but that's a contract for Autodesk software, not necessarily Autodesk being embedded in Ford's next product. The EBA is a licensing agreement, not a design win. The question is about being "chosen, specified, qualified, designed in, or otherwise locked into position inside another organization's future product, program, platform, build-out, or standard operating plan." That sounds more like a component supplier or a technology that becomes part of another company's offering. Autodesk sells software tools, not components. The examples given are about customers using Autodesk software for their own operations, but that's not the same as being designed into their product. For instance, Ford using Autodesk for design is just a customer relationship, not a design win where Autodesk is embedded in Ford's car. The question specifically says "such that when that outside party's own next wave of activity arrives, this company's volume arrives with it automatically." That implies a dependency where Autodesk's revenue is tied to the counterparty's production. For example, if Autodesk's software is used to design a new airplane, and when the airplane goes into production, Autodesk gets more revenue from licenses? But that's not automatic; it's just that the customer uses the software. The question is about a secured position where the selection has already happened, and the wave is the counterparty's own next act.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-05 | C+ |
| CLGN | CollPlant Biotechnologies Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-04 | F |
| EMKR | EMCORE Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2023-12-12 | C+ |
| AIRG | Airgain, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-09 | F |
| EVGO | EVgo, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-26 | C+ |
| WYY | WidePoint Corporation | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-09 | D |
| THRM | Gentherm Incorporated | Q2 2016 | 2016-07-28 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| SPR | Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | D |
CUBI · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes a white-label partnership with T-Mobile where BankMobile provides services under T-Mobile's brand, with deposits expected to start in the next year after the launch. However, this does not meet the criteria for a secured position inside T-Mobile's next product or program. The language focuses on a partnership relationship that is still being launched, rather than a design win or qualification already embedded in T-Mobile's future offering. Management refers to it as an "expected white label partnership" and "working on" the launch, indicating it is not yet locked in as part of T-Mobile's committed plan.
EMKR · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes an agreement with Kratos for Inertial Navigation Systems to be included in the XQ58 Valkyrie drone, with the Air Force planning to acquire at least 1,000 units. However, this is framed as an announcement of a new agreement rather than a secured, locked-in position already designed 100% into the platform with volume guaranteed.
NC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will arrive automatically whe...