Already inside the gate: the company is specified into someone else's next wave, and the wave has not yet shipped
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if the transcript describes a situation where the company is already chosen/designed into another organization's future product/program, the wave hasn't arrived yet, and the position is large relative to the company. Let's scan the transcript for such a situation. The key topics: Calcimimetics transition, ESRD PPS, ESCOs, Patients Act, MSP extension, HIF inhibitors, etc. The most promising is the Calcimimetics transition. Management says: "Calcimimetics; they continue to evolve. As you remember, we're moving from Part D in David to Part B in Barry. Pharmacy to the clinics. We believe that we're probably two quarters in to two to four quarter process in order to get this sorted out with great clarity in detail." This is about a transition in how the drug is administered and reimbursed. But is that a "position inside another organization's future product"? Not exactly. It's a regulatory/payment change. Another is the ESRD PPS draft rule for 2019. That's a payment rate increase, not a design-in. ESCOs: "we're sitting in a place today where we're roughly at about 41,000 patients in the ESCOs which we've been there for most of the quarter. We could see that going up a little bit potentially, but I think the better part of your question and answer is, we don't really see this going up expontentially if you will at any significant degree until we get release from CMS or CMMI that they're going to allow us to add more locations beyond the 24 we had today or they could do, what they did this year, which is to say, keep your 24 locations but we'll let you open up each of those locations or select locations of the 24 to grow." That's about waiting for regulatory approval to expand, not a design-in. HIF inhibitors: "I think everybody is rushing the HIF's along at warp speed. I just don't think we're going to be looking at them getting approved as early as some other people do and having said that, it doesn't mean we shouldn't be thinking about the methodology and how that's going to work." That's speculative.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-05 | C+ |
| CLGN | CollPlant Biotechnologies Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-04 | F |
| EMKR | EMCORE Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2023-12-12 | C+ |
| AIRG | Airgain, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-09 | F |
| EVGO | EVgo, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-26 | C+ |
| WYY | WidePoint Corporation | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-09 | D |
| THRM | Gentherm Incorporated | Q2 2016 | 2016-07-28 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| SPR | Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | D |
CUBI · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes a white-label partnership with T-Mobile where BankMobile provides services under T-Mobile's brand, with deposits expected to start in the next year after the launch. However, this does not meet the criteria for a secured position inside T-Mobile's next product or program. The language focuses on a partnership relationship that is still being launched, rather than a design win or qualification already embedded in T-Mobile's future offering. Management refers to it as an "expected white label partnership" and "working on" the launch, indicating it is not yet locked in as part of T-Mobile's committed plan.
EMKR · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes an agreement with Kratos for Inertial Navigation Systems to be included in the XQ58 Valkyrie drone, with the Air Force planning to acquire at least 1,000 units. However, this is framed as an announcement of a new agreement rather than a secured, locked-in position already designed 100% into the platform with volume guaranteed.
NC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will arrive automatically whe...