Already inside the gate: the company is specified into someone else's next wave, and the wave has not yet shipped
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2018 call → NOThe question asks whether management describes the company as already secured inside another organization's future product/program, with the wave not yet arrived, and the position being large relative to the company. Let me scan the transcript for such a situation. Key candidates: 1. The "major box store" converting to Koppers' patented technology (microprobe) - this is a design win, transition planned late this fall, "little effect on the balance of 2018, but should provide a nice boost heading into 2019." This sounds like a secured position in a retailer's program that hasn't ramped yet. 2. The "sizable new international account" - but this is "we believe that we'll be able to talk about" - not yet secured, still being worked on. 3. The MA Energy acquisition for used tie disposal - discussions with railroads, not yet secured. 4. The China customer - pricing dispute, not a new design win. Let me focus on the box store conversion. Leroy says: "Our major box store has recently made the decision to convert their ground contact treated wood program from a soluble copper based product to our patented technology microprobe. The transition is planned to occur late this fall and while it will have little effect on the balance of 2018, it should provide a nice boost heading into 2019 whether it be through unit sales or product or increase royalty payments." This is a decision made (secured), the transition is planned for late fall (not yet arrived), and it will provide a boost heading into 2019. Is it large relative to the company? It's described as a "nice boost" - somewhat meaningful but not described as large relative to the company. The company's PC segment is ~$68M EBITDA, and this is one customer conversion. It's not described as transformative or large relative to the company. Also, is this a "next thing" of the box store? It's a conversion of their ground contact treated wood program - a program change. The decision is made, the transition is planned. But is it "large relative to the company"? The language "nice boost" suggests it's meaningful but not huge. The question requires all three elements. The position is secured (decision made), the wave hasn't arrived (transition late fall, little effect on 2018), but is it "large relative to the company"? The description is "a nice boost" - this seems moderate, not clearly large relative to the company.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-05 | C+ |
| CLGN | CollPlant Biotechnologies Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-04 | F |
| EMKR | EMCORE Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2023-12-12 | C+ |
| AIRG | Airgain, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-09 | F |
| EVGO | EVgo, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-26 | C+ |
| WYY | WidePoint Corporation | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-09 | D |
| THRM | Gentherm Incorporated | Q2 2016 | 2016-07-28 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| SPR | Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | D |
CUBI · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes a white-label partnership with T-Mobile where BankMobile provides services under T-Mobile's brand, with deposits expected to start in the next year after the launch. However, this does not meet the criteria for a secured position inside T-Mobile's next product or program. The language focuses on a partnership relationship that is still being launched, rather than a design win or qualification already embedded in T-Mobile's future offering. Management refers to it as an "expected white label partnership" and "working on" the launch, indicating it is not yet locked in as part of T-Mobile's committed plan.
EMKR · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes an agreement with Kratos for Inertial Navigation Systems to be included in the XQ58 Valkyrie drone, with the Air Force planning to acquire at least 1,000 units. However, this is framed as an announcement of a new agreement rather than a secured, locked-in position already designed 100% into the platform with volume guaranteed.
NC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will arrive automatically whe...