Already inside the gate: the company is specified into someone else's next wave, and the wave has not yet shipped
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if the transcript describes a situation where Mobileye has already been chosen/designed into another company's future product/program, and that program hasn't shipped yet, and the position is large relative to Mobileye. Let's analyze the transcript. Key points: - Amnon mentions "nine large established OEM prospects and what we consider advanced stages for products like SuperVision and Chauffeur." But that's prospects, not secured wins. However, he also mentions "We can now count nine large established OEM prospects and what we consider advanced stages" - that's not secured. - He mentions "Our work with Volkswagen Group is a good example. Since 2018, all new vehicles across the group have used Mobileye provided ADAS, and this relationship exists well into the 2030s. Beginning in 2021 REM mapping functionality was added to the NED platform... The success of this product, which we call cloud enhanced ADAS led to a recent design link to Cascade REM across most of the entire group over time." That's a design win for REM across VW group. But is that already shipping? It says "recent design link" - so it's a design win, but the wave? The REM is being added to existing platforms? It says "across most of the entire group over time" - so it's a rollout. But is it already shipping? Possibly. But the question is about a future wave. - He mentions "Next, we have the SuperVision design win with Porsche. Porsche shares common platforms with other premium brands of the Volkswagen Group. While not formalized yet, we expect SuperVision to be adopted by the other premium brands to increase economies of scale. In fact, Audi and Bentley executives are already on record expressing excitement to bring SuperVision to their product." So Porsche is a design win, but the other brands are not formalized yet. So the secured position is Porsche. But is Porsche's SuperVision already shipping? The transcript says "SuperVision shipments were 10,000 units in the quarter." That's for ZEEKR? Actually, ZEEKR is the one with SuperVision. Porsche is a design win, but not yet in production. So the Porsche program is a future wave. But is it large relative to Mobileye? Possibly. - He also mentions "Our work with Volkswagen Group is a good example...
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-05 | C+ |
| CLGN | CollPlant Biotechnologies Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-04 | F |
| EMKR | EMCORE Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2023-12-12 | C+ |
| AIRG | Airgain, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-09 | F |
| EVGO | EVgo, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-26 | C+ |
| WYY | WidePoint Corporation | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-09 | D |
| THRM | Gentherm Incorporated | Q2 2016 | 2016-07-28 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| SPR | Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | D |
CUBI · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes a white-label partnership with T-Mobile where BankMobile provides services under T-Mobile's brand, with deposits expected to start in the next year after the launch. However, this does not meet the criteria for a secured position inside T-Mobile's next product or program. The language focuses on a partnership relationship that is still being launched, rather than a design win or qualification already embedded in T-Mobile's future offering. Management refers to it as an "expected white label partnership" and "working on" the launch, indicating it is not yet locked in as part of T-Mobile's committed plan.
EMKR · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes an agreement with Kratos for Inertial Navigation Systems to be included in the XQ58 Valkyrie drone, with the Air Force planning to acquire at least 1,000 units. However, this is framed as an announcement of a new agreement rather than a secured, locked-in position already designed 100% into the platform with volume guaranteed.
NC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will arrive automatically whe...