Bought the ticket, hasn't taken the ride: the company has already paid for its next stage and is now waiting to be paid
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2015 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes a situation where the company has already spent or committed resources for a stage of business not yet paid back, with the return still outstanding and treated as a matter of time. The transcript mentions several projects: Cana plant, Tall Oak acquisition, Lobo II plant, Ascension Pipeline, etc. But we need to see if there is a clear case where spending is done, return is outstanding, and management treats payback as a matter of time. Key points: Mike Garberding discusses 2016 guidance, capital expenditures, and financing. He mentions that they have no marketed equity or debt needs, and they have significant optionality. He talks about growth capital in Oklahoma, Permian, Louisiana. For example, Lobo II plant is under construction, scheduled to come online in Q4, with anchor customer. That is spending now, return later. But is that "already spent"? They are constructing, so spending is ongoing. The question asks if management makes clear that the company has ALREADY PAID for a stage of business it has not yet been paid back for. That implies the outlay is substantially complete. For Lobo II, it's under construction, not yet complete. So not yet. What about Tall Oak acquisition? They acquired it, paid for it (with equity and cash). The acquisition was completed. The return from Tall Oak is expected to come from future volumes. But is the return still outstanding? Yes, they are integrating systems, expecting growth. But management might be saying that the acquisition is done, and they are now working to realize the benefits. However, they also mention that they are deferring some capital, and the EBITDA from Tall Oak is not yet at full potential. But is that a "stage of business" they have already paid for? The acquisition itself is a payment, but the return is from future operations. That could fit. But we need to see if management explicitly describes that the spending is done, the return is outstanding, and they treat payback as a matter of time. Also, the scale must be large relative to the company. In the transcript, Barry Davis says: "We are executing on the plan we laid out and completed the - and financed approximately $4.5 billion of acquisitions, dropdowns and growth projects, primarily focused in Oklahoma, the Permian and Louisiana." That indicates they have already spent/committed a lot.
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PRIM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management describes having already spent money or resources for a larger operation, but the revenue from that hasn't arrived yet. YES The transcript shows management describing the Willbros acquisition as a completed outlay: closed June 1, $165 million total paid ($38.4 million cash for shares + $123.2 million debt settlement + $3.1 million fees), net cash $111 million, funded by revolver, then refinanced 220 million term loan. This is treated as already done, not planned. The return is still largely outstanding: only one month of Willbros operations reported ($61 million revenue, $6.8 million gross profit, $2.9 million operating income in June), merger-related expenses $7.
PSX · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is about whether management describes having already spent money or resources for a larger operation, but the returns haven't come yet, and they expect them soon as a matter of time. YES Management describes the U.S. Gulf Coast Petrochemicals Project as already substantially paid for: capital spending is “reduced following the completion of the project” and “down significantly” compared with last year, with roughly $1 billion of CapEx no longer available for distribution.
TGI · Q2 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management describes having already spent money or resources for a larger operation that hasn't paid back yet. YES The transcript shows management describing a clear situation matching all three criteria. On slide 13, they report "$126 million" of year-to-date investments in development programs as a completed cash outflow ("used $126 million"), with incremental customer financing providing $100 million offset.