Cash cost of the wait: management is funding a defined waiting period whose end is already scheduled
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2023 call → NOThe question asks whether management describes the company as currently living through a defined waiting period it is paying for out of its own pocket, with three conditions: 1. The company is paying now for something not yet earning. 2. Management speaks as though the wait is the company's main current work. 3. The far side is a specific, near-dated, already-visible event. Let me examine the transcript for evidence. The key topic here is La Preciosa. Management discusses: - Signing a long-term land use agreement with the local community for the development of La Preciosa. - Capital costs for La Preciosa in 2024 expected to be between $3 million to $4 million, including surface works and equipment procurement. - The application for the environmental permit has been submitted. - Avino anticipates receiving permits sometime in 2024. - They are hauling old surface stockpiles to the mill for processing. Let me check each condition: (1) THE COMPANY IS PAYING NOW FOR SOMETHING NOT YET EARNING. - The $3-4 million capital costs for La Preciosa in 2024 are for surface works and equipment procurement. This is spending on something not yet producing. The company is funding this itself. The environmental permit is pending. So yes, they are paying for development before production begins. (2) MANAGEMENT SPEAKS AS THOUGH THE WAIT IS THE COMPANY'S MAIN CURRENT WORK. - David Wolfin says: "our current focus is moving forward with our plans for the Gloria and Abundancia veins at La Preciosa, with the community engagement ongoing as we ready ourselves to begin development work." - He also says: "La Preciosa is our absolute top priority." - This suggests the wait/development is the main current work. (3) THE FAR SIDE IS A SPECIFIC, NEAR-DATED, ALREADY-VISIBLE EVENT. - "Avino anticipates receiving lease permits sometime in 2024." - "possibly by the end of the year, we could have fresh ore coming out of the mine." - The event is receiving permits and starting production. This is within the coming year (2024). - However, the arrival depends on obtaining permits - "securing approvals" - which the question says should NOT be the case.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| LILA | Liberty Latin America Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-23 | C |
| SBS | Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-10 | C+ |
| QTRX | Quanterix Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-07 | B |
| APPS | Digital Turbine, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2023-08-08 | D |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| CDE | Coeur Mining, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | F |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| YUM | Yum! Brands, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | C |
| IBTX | Independent Bank Group, Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-24 | A |
| FLEX | Flex Ltd. | Q1 2018 | 2017-07-28 | F |
| DAN | Dana Incorporated | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-02 | B |
SBS · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as currently living through a defined waiting period it's paying for out of its own pocket. YES The transcript shows management describing the company as currently bearing real, ongoing cash costs (salaries, consulting, transition work) for the IDP/restructuring program whose benefits (full expense reduction, shared-services center operational) are not yet realized. The far side is a specific, near-dated event: full 3.7% staff reduction and shared-services center operational by mid-2024 (July 2024 for full benefit), with the program already in motion and on schedule. Management frames this as the main current work, not a setback, and treats the costs as self-funded. This meets all three conditions.
EHTH · Q2 2021 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as currently living through a defined waiting period it is paying for out of its own pocket. YES The transcript shows management describing the company as currently living through a defined waiting period for the AEP, paying for it out of its own pocket through heavy investments in internal agents and quality initiatives. They hired agents early, many still in training with lower productivity, and are bearing the cost of additional training and customer service expansion in Q3. This is framed as a chosen investment to improve enrollment quality and prepare for the fourth-quarter AEP, not an apology or external issue.
YUM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as currently living through a defined waiting period it is paying for out of its own pocket. YES The transcript shows management describing a clear, self-funded transition cost tied to the refranchising effort. They explicitly call out the “timing mismatch between G&A savings and refranchising” as one of the four items weighing on Q2 core operating profit, and they quantify the full-year headwind at 6 7 percentage points. This is presented as a real, ongoing drag on current results while they complete the shift to 98 % franchised by year-end 2018 and reach the 1.7 % G&A run-rate target in 2019.