Cheap-to-serve incremental business: management says the next tranche of volume costs it almost nothing extra
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, with an already-built base and additional business arriving now. From the transcript, Keith Waddell discusses the company's approach: "We've long taken the stance that we will not anticipate a downturn in how we manage our costs. They always lag a bit relative to our topline. The same has been true here. We're more focused on having the right kind of dry powder when things get better, than optimizing trough margins." This suggests they are not cutting costs aggressively but rather maintaining capacity for future growth. However, they have taken targeted actions to align costs with revenues, as mentioned earlier: "Our operating cost base also benefited from the targeted actions we've taken to align costs with revenues." So they have reduced costs somewhat. But the question is about incremental business being cheap to serve because the base is already built and paid for. Is there any statement that additional volume can be served with existing resources? Keith mentions "dry powder" - that implies they have capacity. But does he say that additional business is arriving now? He says: "we are encouraged that during the last 10 weeks to 12 weeks, our weekly revenues have declined less than that same rate a quarter ago... So clearly, the rate of decline has narrowed and or improved significantly." That indicates that the decline is slowing, but not necessarily that business is increasing. He says "the rate of decline has narrowed" - so still declining, but less so. That is not "additional business arriving" - it's a slower decline. The question requires "more of that business is already coming in" - meaning volume is increasing. Here, it's still decreasing, just at a slower rate. So that does not meet the criterion of additional business arriving. Also, management does not explicitly say that the cost of serving the next increment is unusually low. They talk about having dry powder, but that's about having resources ready, not necessarily that incremental business is cheap. They also mention that they are not optimizing trough margins, but that's about not cutting too much. They do mention that they have made cost adjustments, but that's about aligning costs with revenues, not about having excess capacity.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGLS | Tecnoglass Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-08 | A |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-14 | C+ |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| HFWA | Heritage Financial Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-27 | A |
| AMC | AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-09 | D |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| WES | Western Midstream Partners, LP | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-31 | D |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
SATS · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...NO The transcript shows management describing high growth with significant upfront acquisition costs, fixed costs leading to margin expansion as growth slows, and beams filling up faster than expected on Jupiter-2 (implying approaching capacity limits rather than excess capacity). However, there is no clear indication of an already-built, underutilized base where additional business is arriving on resources already paid for without new capacity investment. Instead, they highlight ongoing build-out (Jupiter-3 in 2021) and potential slowdowns, which aligns with the "NO" criteria for being near limits or in a growth cycle requiring new spending.
ATI · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES Management describes the HPMC segment’s leverage from “additional volume across our asset base” and “utilization increases across our isothermal and conventional forging assets” that already generated “significant incremental margin growth,” with next-generation jet engine sales up 65% and now at 48% of total jet engine sales. They state they are “well positioned both in capability and capacity to continue to benefit from these trends well into the future” after noting the fourth press is coming on stream in a couple of years.
UMH · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this situation: the company already owns 3,600 vacant sites (most acquired) plus 6,215 rental homes (93.3% occupied), so the next increment of rental-home business can be served on infrastructure already paid for and in place. They explicitly call the rental program “the most efficient way to fill the vacant sites,” and they are already adding 608 homes this year on track for 800, with Same-Property occupancy rising to 83.2% and expense ratios improving as occupancy climbs.