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Compounding evidence

Compounding evidence: management cites customer behavior, not just customer numbers, as proof the offering is winning

Calls Tested
470
Answered YES
84
Hit Rate
17.9%
rare by design

Marin Software Incorporated (MRIN) — this company's answers

NO on the Q4 2016 call 2017-02-28 D
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2016 call → NO我们根据提供的财报电话会议记录来回答。问题要求判断管理层是否基于观察到的客户或合作伙伴行为(具体行为)来证明业务在增长,而不是仅基于公司自身结果、努力或计划。 阅读记录:管理层提到了一些客户签约、续约或扩展的案例,例如“在过去的几个月里,Marin已经与商业服务、娱乐、金融服务、房地产、零售技术和旅游垂直领域的领先广告商签约、续约或扩展了商业关系。”这提到了具体行为(签约、续约、扩展),但描述比较笼统,没有具体行为细节。此外,还提到了一些具体案例,比如“对于一家大型汽车客户,Marin能够使我们的代理商利用搜索意图在Facebook上创建自定义受众,从而重新定位潜在客户,导致整体每条线索成本下降77%,月度转化率增加132%。”以及“在欧洲,TUI Netherlands通过他们的代理商能够利用Marin来利用搜索意图在Facebook上重新营销,导致53%的转化来自移动新闻源,转化成本下降23%。”这些是具体的客户行为结果,但它们是作为产品功能的示例,而非作为核心增长证据。管理层还谈到了他们的举措,如销售和营销执行、客户成功、产品创新,以及“我们预计Marin将在2017年恢复增长”。 关键点:管理层是否将观察到的客户行为作为核心证据?他们提到了一些客户签约和续约,但描述非常概括,没有具体行为细节(比如客户主动扩大使用、提前决定等)。具体案例是针对特定客户的性能提升,但那是产品功能的展示,并非展示客户行为(如续约、扩展)作为证据。此外,管理层承认近期收入下降,并归因于客户流失和软预订。他们强调还在努力中,未来增长尚未体现。在回答中,他们提到“这些领先的广告商选择了Marin”,但那是声明性的,没有具体行为。 根据指导,如果客户证据是泛泛的(“我们的客户爱我们”),或者没有描述行为,则答案为否。这里虽然有具体案例,但那些案例是关于性能提升,不是客户行为(如选择、续约等)的直接证据。管理层没有说“这些客户续约了,因为...”,而是说“我们已经签约、续约或扩展了”,但那是公司自己的结果,不是具体行为细节。另外,这些案例是作为产品创新成果,而非核心增长证据。管理层更多强调他们的计划和举措,以及对未来的预期。 因此,答案为NO。

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, when management explains why it believes the business is working and will keep growing, does it ground that case in OBSERVED CUSTOMER OR COUNTERPARTY BEHAVIOR from the recent period — concrete things buyers, users, or partners are actually DOING that reveal genuine preference or commitment — rather than only in the company's own results, effort, or plans? Answer YES when management's own words convey, in whatever form fits the business, BOTH of the following: (1) BEHAVIORAL EVIDENCE, DESCRIBED CONCRETELY AND CURRENTLY. Management points to at least one specific pattern of real counterparty behavior in the recent period that demonstrates the offering is being chosen and valued — for example: customers returning, reordering, renewing, or expanding on their own initiative; buyers adopting faster, deciding sooner, or committing earlier or bigger than such buyers normally do; existing users widening their usage, deployments, or scope beyond what they originally signed up for; counterparties accepting waits, terms, or effort to secure access; new buyers arriving because of what existing users did, said, or achieved; or customers behaving in some other way that costs them something and therefore reveals real conviction. The behavior must be described as actually observed now — grounded in what specific kinds of counterparties are doing in the recent period — not asserted through generic loyalty, satisfaction, or brand-strength language. (2) MANAGEMENT TREATS THIS BEHAVIOR AS THE CORE PROOF, WITH MORE STILL AHEAD. Management presents this observed behavior as central evidence for where the company is heading — connecting it to why growth continues — and conveys, directly or plainly in substance, that the business this behavior points to is still mostly in front of the company (the pattern is early, spreading, or building) rather than already fully reflected in the reported results. Answer NO if management's case for the business rests mainly on its own reported results, guidance, execution claims, cost actions, market size, industry tailwinds, or pipeline, without observed counterparty behavior doing the work. NO if the customer evidence is generic boilerplate ("our customers love us," "retention remains strong," "demand is healthy") with no described behavior behind it. NO if the cited behavior is a single isolated anecdote that management itself treats as immaterial. NO if the behavior is chiefly attributed to a temporary condition — shortage, pre-buy, catch-up, seasonality, or one-time event — that management expects to unwind. NO if the behavior described is negative or weakening (churn, downgrades, hesitation). NO if the behavioral evidence appears only in an analyst's question or characterization that management does not itself affirm. Use only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
NOAH Noah Holdings Limited Q1 2024 2024-05-30 D
CRGO Freightos Limited Q1 2024 2024-05-20 C+
FWONK Formula One Group Q1 2024 2024-05-08 C+
LINC Lincoln Educational Services Corporation Q1 2024 2024-05-06 B+
PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation Q1 2024 2024-05-03 A
AES The AES Corporation Q1 2024 2024-05-03 C+
ROCK Gibraltar Industries, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-05-01 B+
LTRX Lantronix, Inc. Q3 2024 2024-04-29 C
PDS Precision Drilling Corporation Q1 2024 2024-04-25 B
DUOT Duos Technologies Group, Inc. Q4 2023 2024-04-01 F
LEGH Legacy Housing Corporation Q4 2023 2024-03-18 C
GIII G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. Q4 2024 2024-03-14 C
KOPN Kopin Corporation Q4 2023 2024-03-14 C+
NICE NICE Ltd. Q4 2023 2024-02-22 B+
CHT Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. Q4 2023 2024-01-30 C
EMKR EMCORE Corporation Q4 2023 2023-12-12 C+
AIRG Airgain, Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-09 F
SCPH scPharmaceuticals Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-08 B
AEIS Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-03 B
AFL Aflac Incorporated Q2 2023 2023-08-02 C+
CTO CTO Realty Growth, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-07-28 B
IMAX IMAX Corporation Q2 2023 2023-07-26 B+
FTHM Fathom Holdings, Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-10 C
ULCC Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-07 C+
CARS Cars.com Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-06 B
BRX Brixmor Property Group Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-02 A
DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-03-07 B
M Macy's, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-03-02 D
OEC Orion Engineered Carbons S.A. Q4 2022 2023-02-17 B+
TOST Toast, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-02-16 C+
ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation Q4 2022 2023-02-14 C+
BLZE Backblaze, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-11 D
SIBN SI-BONE, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-07 C+
MEC Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-05 B+
AWRE Aware, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-10-30 F
YMM Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. Q2 2022 2022-08-25 C+
TMCI Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-08-13 B+
DM Desktop Metal, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-08-08 F
CRL Charles River Laboratories International Q2 2022 2022-08-03 C
SYM Symbotic Inc. Q3 2022 2022-08-01 B+
INVH Invitation Homes Inc. Q2 2022 2022-07-28 B+
UPWK Upwork Inc. Q2 2022 2022-07-27 C+
FLYW Flywire Corporation Q1 2022 2022-05-14 B+
ZVIA Zevia PBC Q1 2022 2022-05-12 B
SOPH SOPHiA GENETICS SA Q4 2021 2022-03-15 C
FLUX Flux Power Holdings, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-02-10 D
GTES Gates Industrial Corporation plc Q4 2021 2022-02-07 C+
MOMO Hello Group Inc. Q3 2021 2021-11-30 D
GFS GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. Q3 2021 2021-11-30 A
ZH Zhihu Inc. Q3 2021 2021-11-22 D
CYBR CyberArk Software Ltd. Q3 2021 2021-11-04 B+
ASAN Asana, Inc. Q2 2022 2021-09-01 B+
LOPE Grand Canyon Education, Inc. Q2 2021 2021-08-08 C
EEX Emerald Holding, Inc. Q2 2021 2021-08-01 C+
ESRT Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. Q2 2021 2021-07-29 C+
DGX Quest Diagnostics Incorporated Q2 2021 2021-07-22 B+
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q2 2021 2021-07-13 A
ADSK Autodesk, Inc. Q3 2019 2018-11-20 A
AMGN Amgen Inc. Q3 2018 2018-10-30 B+
LRN Stride, Inc. Q1 2019 2018-10-23 B
PRIM Primoris Services Corporation Q2 2018 2018-08-11 C+
IRT Independence Realty Trust, Inc. Q2 2018 2018-08-02 B
KIM Kimco Realty Corporation Q2 2018 2018-07-26 B+
MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated Q2 2018 2018-06-28 C+
BCOV Brightcove Inc. Q1 2018 2018-04-26 B+
ALLY Ally Financial Inc. Q1 2018 2018-04-26 B+
ILMN Illumina, Inc. Q1 2018 2018-04-24 A
PCRX Pacira BioSciences, Inc. Q4 2017 2018-02-28 C
INST Instructure's Q4 2017 2018-02-12 B+
AVT Avnet, Inc. Q2 2018 2018-01-25 B
MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Q3 2017 2017-10-25 C+
LIND Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. Q2 2017 2017-08-06 C
BCE BCE Inc. Q2 2017 2017-08-05 B+
CNS Cohen & Steers, Inc. Q2 2017 2017-07-20 B
PLAB Photronics, Inc. Q2 2017 2017-05-17 C+
IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Q1 2017 2017-05-09 C
ICFI ICF International, Inc. Q1 2017 2017-05-06 B+
WYY WidePoint Corporation Q3 2016 2016-11-09 D
MAT Mattel, Inc. Q3 2016 2016-10-19 C
VRNS Varonis Systems, Inc. Q2 2016 2016-08-09 B+
NWSA News Corporation Q2 2016 2016-08-08 C+
GOGO Gogo Inc. Q1 2016 2016-05-06 C+
RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Q1 2016 2016-04-29 C+
HPP Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. Q4 2015 2016-02-25 C

How the model reasoned

ULCC · Q1 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management ground their case in OBSERVED CUSTOMER OR COUNTERPARTY BEHAVIOR from the recent period? YES Management points to concrete recent-period behavior: over half of GoWild Pass sales so far are from customers with no prior travel history with Frontier, plus overwhelmingly positive feedback and customers taking the product to social media. They treat this observed adoption pattern as central proof that the offering is working and will keep growing, with the 90%+ repeat rate and $85–$100 per-passenger contribution goals still ahead of current results. They also cite the shift in consumer demand patterns (leisure travel increasingly favoring peak days, expanding RASM premium from 19% to over 25%) as direct evidence of customer preference that is reshaping capacity and margins. These elements are presented as the behavioral foundation for continued growth rather than merely company results or plans.
PCRX · Q4 2017 → YESThe question is: Does management ground their case for why the business is working and will keep growing in OBSERVED CUSTOMER OR COUNTERPARTY BEHAVIOR from the recent period? YES Management grounds its case in concrete, observed counterparty behavior—specifically J&J’s sales team activating accounts and training customers on EXPAREL technique, with the number of activated accounts continuing to grow, plus J&J committing to a six-fold increase in PEAK programs (already exceeding 2018 plans). They also cite commercial payers paying for EXPAREL under C9290 as a medical benefit and hospitals gaining access through surgeon relationships, treating these patterns as central proof that the offering is being chosen and valued, with the business still early and expanding ahead.
PPC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is: Does management ground their case in OBSERVED CUSTOMER OR COUNTERPARTY BEHAVIOR from the recent period? YES Management grounds its case in observed counterparty behavior by citing concrete patterns such as key customers increasing marketplace presence, deli and QSRs showing steady performance, brands growing faster than category averages in Europe, key customer partnerships driving growth in Mexico, and key customers outpacing industry growth in domestic chicken volumes and value-added products — all presented as recent, specific actions by buyers and partners that demonstrate genuine preference and commitment, with the business still building further through continued diversification and new opportunities.

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.