Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management lays out a timetable of specific conversions that are already secured or in motion, with timing, and presents this as the forward story. Let's analyze the transcript. Key forward-looking statements: - 2018 guidance: revenue, adjusted EBITDA, EPS. - Bed additions: "During 2017, we added 750 beds to existing and two new facilities... For 2018, we expect to add more than 800 beds to existing and new facilities with about 75% of these beds expected in the U.S. We have two joint ventures and two company-owned de novos scheduled to open in 2018." - They mention the de novos: "two joint ventures and two company-owned de novos scheduled to open in 2018." They also mention "we did complete the acquisition of a 36-bed education facility in the UK during the fourth quarter" but that's already done. - They discuss UK operations: "we are working to mitigate the impact of a relatively weak rebalance in census... and the increased cost of agency labor." They have initiatives. - They provide same-facility metrics expectations: "We expect same-facility revenue to grow in the mid-single digits. Same-facility EBITDA margins are expected the same or slightly up." - They discuss the Cures Act and opioid funding: "We've had some early successes in three states where the Cures Act has made it through the state and is actually being used today... we have lobbyists in every state... But we need more states to actually get it implemented and start flowing the funds." This is not secured; it's contingent on states. - They discuss debt repayment and refinancing: "we are working and thinking about the debt restructurings where we can get some benefit." Not a conversion. - They discuss UK labor: "we are starting to see improvement in our agency labor. In January, agency expense as a percent of total labor declined to 11.4% from 12% in December. We expect this improvement to continue throughout 2018." This is an improvement, not a conversion of secured business. - They discuss UK census: "the UK is going through a transition process... our team in the UK estimates that it will take another year before these local communities fully transition this in." That's a hope, not secured. - They discuss de novo losses: "During the fourth quarter, we had a $1.8 million loss on the de novos. We had three de novos.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.