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Conversion calendar in hand

Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured

Calls Tested
443
Answered YES
6
Hit Rate
1.4%
rare by design

Digital Turbine, Inc. (APPS) — this company's answers

NO on the Q1 2024 call 2023-08-08 D
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2024 call → NO我们根据提供的财报电话会议记录,判断管理层是否在讨论未来四五个季度时,给出了一个具体的时间表,其中包含已经确定或正在进行的业务,并附有大致的时间框架,使得前瞻性叙述看起来像是一个按计划启动的事项列表,而不是对需求的希望。 首先,检查管理层是否提到了已经确定的业务(已赢得、签署、启动等)以及时间安排。在电话会议中,Bill Stone 提到了几个方面: - 关于 SingleTap,他说“we have now generated our first revenues with TikTok, who is running SingleTap campaigns for their advertisers”,并且“We are also launching this quarter with LinkedIn”,以及“we expect to begin a revenue generating pilot with another large social media company across their entire user base here in the U.S. later this calendar year.” 这些是具体的业务,但 TikTok 已经产生收入,LinkedIn 本季度启动,另一个大型社交媒体公司预计今年晚些时候开始试点。这些是已经确定或正在进行的,但时间框架是“本季度”和“今年晚些时候”,属于大致时间。 - 关于 DT Hub,他说“We’ve launched our first alternative app distribution products, which we brand as DT Hub with four operators here in the United States, leveraging our Aptoide investment and are generating revenue today.” 这已经启动并产生收入,但时间框架是“今天”,没有具体未来时间。 - 关于 AGP 业务,他说“our app growth platform segment or HEP business, I was pleased to see our business show sequential growth in the June quarter, which was up nearly 10% from the March quarter.” 这是已经发生的,不是未来。 - 关于未来,他提到“we expect these new ad tech capabilities to be a growth driver for our business as we enter the second-half of this fiscal year.” 这是对未来的期望,但没有具体已确定的业务。 - 关于替代应用分发,他提到“we are building alternative app distribution for app publishers” 和“We’ve launched our first alternative app distribution products”,但这是已经启动的。 - 关于未来增长,他提到“we expect a strong global pipeline of expanding telcos and OEM relationships to help offset any macro weakness in device sales in the future.” 这是管道,不是已确定的。 - 在回答问题时,他提到“we’re seeing positive impacts there”关于 Google 的 header bidding,但这是测试阶段。 - 关于 SingleTap 的进展,他提到“we have now generated our first revenues with TikTok”等,但这些都是已经发生的,不是未来时间表。 管理层是否给出了一个时间表,其中包含已确定的业务及其启动时间?在电话会议中,管理层提到了几个具体项目,但时间框架并不明确,而且很多是已经发生的。对于未来,他们提到“as we enter the second-half of this fiscal year”对于 ad tech 能力,但这不是具体已确定的业务。对于 SingleTap,他们提到“later this calendar year”对于另一个大型社交媒体公司的试点,但这是试点,不是已签署的合同。 此外,管理层没有明确说“这些已确定的业务将在未来几个季度逐步贡献收入”,而是更多谈论了投资和期望。他们提到“we expect these new ad tech capabilities to be a growth driver for our business as we enter the second-half of this fiscal year”,但这是期望,不是已确定的。 在回答分析师问题时,Bill Stone 说“we’re seeing positive impacts there”关于 Google,但这是测试。 总体来看,管理层提到了几个已启动或正在进行的项目,但并没有给出一个清晰的时间表,说明这些项目将在未来几个季度逐步贡献收入。他们更多是谈论了投资和期望,而不是一个具体的、已确定的业务时间表。 因此,答案应为 NO。

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, when management talks about the company's NEXT FOUR OR SO QUARTERS, does it lay out a TIMETABLE OF SPECIFIC CONVERSIONS \u2014 identified pieces of business that are ALREADY SECURED OR ALREADY IN MOTION, each attached to an at-least-approximate time frame in which it starts contributing \u2014 so that the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on, rather than as hopes about demand?\n\nAnswer YES when management's own words convey BOTH of the following as one coherent forward account, in whatever form fits the business:\n\n(1) THE ITEMS ON THE TIMETABLE ARE ALREADY REAL. Management identifies concrete business whose existence is no longer in question \u2014 already won, signed, awarded, ordered, booked, contracted, built, launched, closed, or already ramping \u2014 in whatever form fits the industry: contracted work or orders scheduled for delivery; a facility, capacity, product, service, or location recently completed or opening on a stated timetable and now filling; customers or programs already signed that go live or scale on a described schedule; an acquisition or expansion already closed whose contribution phases in; committed volumes stepping up on agreed dates. One substantial item or several smaller ones together both count. Items still being pursued, negotiated, piloted without commitment, or awaiting approvals, financing, or customer decisions do NOT count toward the timetable.\n\n(2) MANAGEMENT ATTACHES TIMING AND TREATS THE SCHEDULE AS THE FORWARD STORY. Management gives each identified item an at-least-rough time anchor within roughly the coming year (this quarter, next quarter, by mid-year, second half, a named month or season) and presents working through this sequence \u2014 starting, ramping, delivering, onboarding, filling \u2014 as the main driver of where the company's results go from here, conveying directly or plainly in substance that the period just reported does not yet meaningfully reflect these contributions, so today's numbers describe the company before the scheduled conversions land.\n\nAnswer NO if the forward discussion rests mainly on demand strength, market conditions, pipeline, opportunities being pursued, or general optimism, with no dated schedule of secured items. NO if the timetable consists of routine, ordinary-course activity at the company's usual scale \u2014 the normal cadence of openings, orders, or seasonal work it always has \u2014 that management does not present as stepping the company beyond its current level. NO if the named items are contingent on approvals, financing, negotiations, or decisions not yet made, or if the only timing given is vague ('over time', 'in the coming years', 'eventually'). NO if the scheduled items' contributions are already substantially reflected in the reported results. NO if management is chiefly explaining delays, slippage, cancellations, or problems with a previously described schedule. NO if the schedule is assembled only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself adopt.\n\nUse only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
ESEA Euroseas Ltd. Q4 2022 2023-02-15 C+
SOL ReneSola Ltd Q3 2022 2022-12-01 C+
FLL Full House Resorts, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-07 B
FAT FAT Brands Inc. Q4 2021 2022-03-21 F
CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation Q3 2017 2017-11-10 A
ESE ESCO Technologies Inc. Q2 2016 2016-05-03 A

How the model reasoned

CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.

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