Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2016 call → NOThe question asks whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions — identified pieces of business that are already secured or already in motion, each attached to an at-least-approximate time frame in which it starts contributing — so that the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on, rather than as hopes about demand. Let me examine the transcript for what management says about the forward period (fiscal 2017 and beyond). Key forward-looking statements: - Don Mulligan: "We expect to drive organic net sales growth of low-single digits for our growth businesses which represent three-four of our portfolio." - "We expect to deliver $380 million of cost of goods HMM which will more than offset cost inflation of 2%." - "We will deliver an incremental $150 million of cost savings in fiscal 2017 from previously announced projects which will bring the total annual savings figure to $500 million." - Guidance: organic net sales growth between down 2% and flat, adjusted gross margin up 150 bps, segment operating profit up 6-8%, adjusted operating margin 150 bps above 16.8%, adjusted diluted EPS up 6-8% in constant currency. Ken Powell's remarks on fiscal 2017 plans: - "We will continue our renovation efforts by converting two more Cheerios varieties to gluten-free and by removing artificial colors and flavors from five additional cereals." - "We’re also launching a number of exciting new cereals including three varieties of Annie’s cereals and two varieties of Tiny Toast which are hitting shelves now." - "We are renovating the packaging on Nature Valley bars, launching new flavors of our popular Nature Valley Nut Butter biscuits and introducing Nature Valley backpacker oatmeal snacks geared towards school-aged kids." - "We have a full slate of plan for Annie’s... We will also benefit from a full-year of category expansion in soup, yogurt, and cereal." - "This month we're rolling out new Greek Whips...
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.