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Conversion calendar in hand

Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured

Calls Tested
443
Answered YES
6
Hit Rate
1.4%
rare by design

Gentex Corporation (GNTX) — this company's answers

NO on the Q3 2017 call 2017-10-20 B
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NO我们根据提供的电话会议记录,判断管理层是否在讨论未来四五个季度时,给出了一个具体的时间表,其中包含已经确定或正在进行的业务,并附有大致的时间框架,使得前瞻性叙述看起来像是一个按计划启动的时间表,而不是对需求的希望。 检查记录内容: - 管理层讨论了多个产品和技术,如Full Display Mirror (FDM)、Camera Monitoring System、Integrated Toll Module、HomeLink等。 - 关于FDM,他们提到已经为五个OEM获得项目,并正在与其他OEM进行高级谈判。他们提到了具体的发布,如Subaru Levorg、Nissan Armada等,但这些是已经发生的发布,不是未来时间表。 - 对于未来,他们提到“我们相信我们将在未来几年看到更多的FDM项目在GM启动”,但没有具体时间。 - 关于ITM,他们提到“我们的目标是在今年年底前获得一个客户”,但这是目标,不是已确定的。 - 关于HomeLink,他们说“国际出货刚刚开始”,但影响要几年。 - 关于2018年收入指引,他们维持6%-10%的增长,但这是基于整体市场预测,不是具体已确定的业务时间表。 - 管理层没有列出未来四个季度内已确定的具体业务转换时间表。他们谈论的是产品发布和客户兴趣,但大多数是已发生的或正在进行的,没有给出未来具体时间点。 因此,答案应为NO。

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, when management talks about the company's NEXT FOUR OR SO QUARTERS, does it lay out a TIMETABLE OF SPECIFIC CONVERSIONS \u2014 identified pieces of business that are ALREADY SECURED OR ALREADY IN MOTION, each attached to an at-least-approximate time frame in which it starts contributing \u2014 so that the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on, rather than as hopes about demand?\n\nAnswer YES when management's own words convey BOTH of the following as one coherent forward account, in whatever form fits the business:\n\n(1) THE ITEMS ON THE TIMETABLE ARE ALREADY REAL. Management identifies concrete business whose existence is no longer in question \u2014 already won, signed, awarded, ordered, booked, contracted, built, launched, closed, or already ramping \u2014 in whatever form fits the industry: contracted work or orders scheduled for delivery; a facility, capacity, product, service, or location recently completed or opening on a stated timetable and now filling; customers or programs already signed that go live or scale on a described schedule; an acquisition or expansion already closed whose contribution phases in; committed volumes stepping up on agreed dates. One substantial item or several smaller ones together both count. Items still being pursued, negotiated, piloted without commitment, or awaiting approvals, financing, or customer decisions do NOT count toward the timetable.\n\n(2) MANAGEMENT ATTACHES TIMING AND TREATS THE SCHEDULE AS THE FORWARD STORY. Management gives each identified item an at-least-rough time anchor within roughly the coming year (this quarter, next quarter, by mid-year, second half, a named month or season) and presents working through this sequence \u2014 starting, ramping, delivering, onboarding, filling \u2014 as the main driver of where the company's results go from here, conveying directly or plainly in substance that the period just reported does not yet meaningfully reflect these contributions, so today's numbers describe the company before the scheduled conversions land.\n\nAnswer NO if the forward discussion rests mainly on demand strength, market conditions, pipeline, opportunities being pursued, or general optimism, with no dated schedule of secured items. NO if the timetable consists of routine, ordinary-course activity at the company's usual scale \u2014 the normal cadence of openings, orders, or seasonal work it always has \u2014 that management does not present as stepping the company beyond its current level. NO if the named items are contingent on approvals, financing, negotiations, or decisions not yet made, or if the only timing given is vague ('over time', 'in the coming years', 'eventually'). NO if the scheduled items' contributions are already substantially reflected in the reported results. NO if management is chiefly explaining delays, slippage, cancellations, or problems with a previously described schedule. NO if the schedule is assembled only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself adopt.\n\nUse only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
ESEA Euroseas Ltd. Q4 2022 2023-02-15 C+
SOL ReneSola Ltd Q3 2022 2022-12-01 C+
FLL Full House Resorts, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-07 B
FAT FAT Brands Inc. Q4 2021 2022-03-21 F
CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation Q3 2017 2017-11-10 A
ESE ESCO Technologies Inc. Q2 2016 2016-05-03 A

How the model reasoned

CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.

More from the question bank

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.