Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if management lays out a timetable of specific conversions that are already secured or in motion, with timing, and presents that schedule as the forward story. Let's analyze the transcript. Key points from the call: - Gerry Shreiber mentions "We have a lot of targets in the fire and we’re expecting that to improve over the near-term." That's vague. - On funnel cakes: "Our whole-grain funnel cake product has been well received in schools and contributed significantly to our sales growth in this quarter." That's already contributed. - On handhelds: "We’ve a major customer that we’ve been dealing with for almost two years and we’ve a backlog of products that we’re making for them out of one of our handheld plants, its going to last in the early spring." That sounds like a secured order with a timeline (early spring). But is it presented as a schedule? He says "we’re cautiously optimistic that we will be able to use this as a platform for others." So it's a specific customer with backlog, but the timing is "early spring" and it's already in motion. However, is it a conversion that will step the company beyond current level? Possibly. - On breakfast: "We got one customer. We got several hundred stores. They love the product, all right. But now we’ve got a pull against a consumer and of course you know who the one customer is in there, they’re going through some issues of their own, so we got to work a little bit harder" - that's not a secured schedule, it's more about existing product. - On new products: "We have a product that I guess we could talk about it officially. If somebody in Minneapolis that’s going to be putting our funnel cake and pretzels, it’s a restaurant chain. And it will be putting it into some couple of 1000 stores in the spring." That is a specific customer, a restaurant chain, putting funnel cake and pretzels into a couple thousand stores in the spring. That is a secured item with timing. Also earlier: "Steve has a customer. I won't mention the name, but all of a sudden they’re going to be dipping it -- what do you call the customer that dips it in the melting pot and that’s going to be a test coming up in the spring, and that’s a couple of 100 stores." That's a test, not fully secured. - On funnel cake: "We do have a major chain that is going to be rolling out funnel cake, different size, but we can do different sizes.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.