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Conversion calendar in hand

Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured

Calls Tested
443
Answered YES
6
Hit Rate
1.4%
rare by design

Korn Ferry (KFY) — this company's answers

NO on the Q4 2022 call 2022-06-22 B
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2022 call → NO我们根据指令,只使用提供的财报电话会议记录。问题问的是管理层是否在谈论未来四个季度左右时,给出了一个具体的时间表,列出已经确定或正在进行的业务,并附有大致的时间框架,使得前瞻性叙述看起来像是按计划启动的事项,而不是对需求的希望。 检查记录内容。管理层提到了新业务、积压订单、季节性模式等。例如,Gary Burnison 说:“我们的新业务在第四季度达到了新高……按月份来看,2月份的新业务强劲,3月份创纪录,4月份虽然环比下降但符合季节性。” Bob Rozek 说:“我们退出第四季度时的合同收入积压是公司历史上最高的,5月份的新业务虽然环比下降,但符合我们的预期和正常的季节性模式。” 他们还提到了收购 Patina 和 Lucas Group,这些已经完成并正在整合。但关于未来季度,他们给出了第一季度的收入指引,但没有详细列出已签约的具体项目及其时间表。他们谈论的是需求趋势、劳动力短缺、市场条件等。没有提到“已签署的合同将在特定季度开始贡献收入”这样的具体时间表。他们提到 RPO 新合同,但说这些合同需要时间启动,收入将在第二季度及以后体现,但这是模糊的。没有列出具体项目及其时间表。因此,答案应为 NO。

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, when management talks about the company's NEXT FOUR OR SO QUARTERS, does it lay out a TIMETABLE OF SPECIFIC CONVERSIONS \u2014 identified pieces of business that are ALREADY SECURED OR ALREADY IN MOTION, each attached to an at-least-approximate time frame in which it starts contributing \u2014 so that the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on, rather than as hopes about demand?\n\nAnswer YES when management's own words convey BOTH of the following as one coherent forward account, in whatever form fits the business:\n\n(1) THE ITEMS ON THE TIMETABLE ARE ALREADY REAL. Management identifies concrete business whose existence is no longer in question \u2014 already won, signed, awarded, ordered, booked, contracted, built, launched, closed, or already ramping \u2014 in whatever form fits the industry: contracted work or orders scheduled for delivery; a facility, capacity, product, service, or location recently completed or opening on a stated timetable and now filling; customers or programs already signed that go live or scale on a described schedule; an acquisition or expansion already closed whose contribution phases in; committed volumes stepping up on agreed dates. One substantial item or several smaller ones together both count. Items still being pursued, negotiated, piloted without commitment, or awaiting approvals, financing, or customer decisions do NOT count toward the timetable.\n\n(2) MANAGEMENT ATTACHES TIMING AND TREATS THE SCHEDULE AS THE FORWARD STORY. Management gives each identified item an at-least-rough time anchor within roughly the coming year (this quarter, next quarter, by mid-year, second half, a named month or season) and presents working through this sequence \u2014 starting, ramping, delivering, onboarding, filling \u2014 as the main driver of where the company's results go from here, conveying directly or plainly in substance that the period just reported does not yet meaningfully reflect these contributions, so today's numbers describe the company before the scheduled conversions land.\n\nAnswer NO if the forward discussion rests mainly on demand strength, market conditions, pipeline, opportunities being pursued, or general optimism, with no dated schedule of secured items. NO if the timetable consists of routine, ordinary-course activity at the company's usual scale \u2014 the normal cadence of openings, orders, or seasonal work it always has \u2014 that management does not present as stepping the company beyond its current level. NO if the named items are contingent on approvals, financing, negotiations, or decisions not yet made, or if the only timing given is vague ('over time', 'in the coming years', 'eventually'). NO if the scheduled items' contributions are already substantially reflected in the reported results. NO if management is chiefly explaining delays, slippage, cancellations, or problems with a previously described schedule. NO if the schedule is assembled only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself adopt.\n\nUse only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
ESEA Euroseas Ltd. Q4 2022 2023-02-15 C+
SOL ReneSola Ltd Q3 2022 2022-12-01 C+
FLL Full House Resorts, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-07 B
FAT FAT Brands Inc. Q4 2021 2022-03-21 F
CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation Q3 2017 2017-11-10 A
ESE ESCO Technologies Inc. Q2 2016 2016-05-03 A

How the model reasoned

CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.