Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2017 call → NOThe question asks whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions—identified pieces of business already secured or in motion, each with timing—so the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on. Let me examine the transcript for what management says about the forward quarters. Key forward-looking statements: - Sven: "reservations for future travel has grown nearly 40% year-to-date" - this is demand strength, not a schedule of secured items. - "2018 is more solidly booked at this point, as a percentage of available revenue than 2015 was at the same point for '16" - again, booking strength. - "The National Geographic Quest, took on her first guest on July 29th" - this is a vessel that launched. It's already launched, contributing in the back half. - "we will turn our attention to bringing online additional vessels in 2018 and 2019, as per our stated plan" - the Venture scheduled to launch next June (2018), and blue-water ships planned to deliver in 2019. - "we continue to work towards finalizing the contract with the selected shipyard for our new blue-water ships. This vessel is still planned to deliver in 2019." - this is still being negotiated, not secured. - "we announced our new base camp Baja expeditions" - new product, but timing not really specified as a conversion schedule. Craig's comments: - "we do anticipate an increase in available guest nights due to the launch of the Quest in late July, partially offset by some additional dry dock days in the fourth quarter." - "We also expect higher occupancy in the back half of the year as a result of the booking strength" - Guidance: "We now expect total company tour revenue in 2017 between $272 million and $276 million, and adjusted EBITDA between $44 million and $46 million." - "we are currently at 98% of our full year projected ticket revenues for 2017" So what are the "secured items" with timing? 1. Quest launched July 29 - already launched, contributing to back half. This is real and in motion. 2. Venture scheduled to launch next June (2018) - this is a planned launch, but is it "already secured"? The vessel is being built, the contract is in place. It's scheduled to launch June 2018. This is a committed build. 3. Blue-water ships planned for 2019 - but the contract is still being finalized, so this is NOT secured.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.