Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management lays out a timetable of specific conversions that are already secured or in motion, each with timing, and presents this as the forward story. Let's scan the transcript for forward-looking statements about specific items with timing. Key areas: production, refining, projects, etc. From Joelson Mendes (E&P): "we will continue to explore the equatorial margin. And now we're drilling a well in the Potiguar Basin and in the future, hopefully, we're going to be able to drill new wells." That's not a secured timetable. From William Franca (RTC): "For 2024, we predict BRL3.8 billion in current CapEx. We'll move forward with the maintenance of our units leading to high availability of our units to refine oil, especially pre-salt oil." That's general. From Carlos Travassos (Engineering): "we are completing our natural gas unit in Itaborai. That will be UPGN gas lube, which will increase our capacity. This is forecast to be concluded in the second half of 2024." That's a specific item with timing. Also "RNEST Train 2 and EGM with the Routes 3 being completed by the beginning of the second half of this year" – that's specific. Also "we will receive proposals for the second adaptation and that would allow it to process 260,000 barrels of oil a day" – that's not secured yet, it's receiving proposals. Also "we signed a contract to acquire HEFA Technology, which will be adopted in RPBC's dedicated plant" – that's a signed contract, but timing? Not specified. Also "we started lab tests and a pilot plant. And in November last year we concluded industrial scale tests to produce bio aromatics." That's past. So there are some specific items with timing: Itaborai gas unit completion in 2H24, Routes 3 completion by beginning of 2H24, RNEST Train 2? Actually "RNEST Train 2" is mentioned? Let's see: "we are also conducting some works there. And in the next weeks, possibly next week, we will receive proposals for the second adaptation" – that's not secured. Also from Claudio Schlosser: "we started selling diesel and gasoline in Rio Verde" – that's already started. From Mauricio Tolmasquim: "we signed MoUs with about 45 companies" – those are not secured. From Sergio Caetano: "we issued $1.5 billion in 10-year bonds" – that's past.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.