Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NOThe question asks whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions that are already secured or in motion, each attached to an approximate timeframe, so the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on. Let me examine the transcript for what management says about the next four or so quarters. Key forward-looking statements in the transcript: 1. Portofino - "Deliveries of the Portofino, which already has a robust waiting list will commence in 2018." - This is a product launch, already unveiled, deliveries commencing in 2018. This is a secured item - the car is launched, has a waiting list, deliveries will commence. 2. 812 Superfast - "just arrived in EMEA" - already ramping. 3. FXX K Evo - "It's not in this quarter. That's all I'll tell you. I think it will get delivered between the end of this year and next year." - This is a limited series, price known, deliveries between end of year and next year. 4. Hong Kong dealership - "We now have selected a permanent solution to the distribution in Hong Kong after a period of vacuum of deliveries into the customer base. That's the reason why Q3 looks as weak as it does. I think we'll see a recovery of the position, including product flow starting in Q4" - this is a recovery of an existing situation, not really a new conversion. 5. Patent box - "we've started officially the process with the tax authorities" - this is still in process, not secured. 6. Hybrid R&D costs - "you will see a ramp-up" in 2018 - this is a cost, not a revenue conversion. Now, does management present a timetable of secured items? The Portofino is launched, has a waiting list, deliveries commence in 2018. The FXX K Evo is sold (price known, deliveries between end of year and next year). The 812 Superfast is already arriving. But does management present these as a schedule driving results? Let me look at how they discuss 2018. When asked about LaFerrari Aperta leaving a hole in 2018 earnings, Marchionne says "Yes, the answer is yes" that volume and earnings from Superfast, Portofino, and GTC4Lusso variant will fill the gap. But he doesn't lay out a detailed schedule. When asked about 2018 ramp, Marchionne says "No, the answer is no, Stephen. I think we need to be careful. We have not unveiled the whole product range for 2018... There's other stuff coming which is typical of Ferrari.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.