Question Bank › Demand off the charts · scarcity_amplification_s

Demand off the charts · scarcity_amplification_screen

Calls Tested
1,871
Answered YES
7
Hit Rate
0.4%
rare by design

Intuit Inc. (INTU) — this company's answers

NO on the Q3 2017 call 2017-05-23 B+
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NOWe need to evaluate the transcript for two gates. Gate 1 asks if the company is talking about demand being off the charts and if numbers support that claim. Gate 2 asks if the demand strength is materially attributable to industry-wide scarcity conditions. If scarcity amplification is present, answer NO. Otherwise, if company-specific drivers, answer YES. We need to return YES only if both gates are YES. Looking at the transcript, the company discusses strong growth in QuickBooks Online subscribers, revenue growth, etc. They mention "subscriber growth accelerating to 59%" and "over 2.2 million subscribers" which is above target. They also mention "online ecosystem revenue growing 30% again this quarter." They talk about strong demand, but do they say "off the charts"? They say "momentum" and "strong results." The phrase "off the charts" is not used. However, the question asks if the company is talking about demand being off the charts. They are talking about strong growth, but not explicitly "off the charts." Also, the numbers support strong growth, but the claim of "off the charts" is not explicitly made. So Gate 1 might be NO because they don't use that exact phrase. But the instruction says "is the company talking about demand how demand is off the charts?" It might be interpreted as whether they are describing demand as exceptionally strong. They do describe strong growth. But the gate says "only consider the data i give you only take that into consideration" and "answer only with yes or no." I think we need to be strict. The transcript does not use the phrase "off the charts." They say "strong" and "momentum." So Gate 1 is likely NO. Even if Gate 1 were YES, Gate 2 asks about scarcity amplification. The transcript does not mention any industry-wide scarcity, shortages, capacity constraints, etc. The demand is attributed to company-specific drivers like new product ramps, market share gains, TurboTax channel, etc. So Gate 2 would be YES because it's company-specific. But since Gate 1 is NO, the overall answer is NO. Thus, answer NO.

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Consider only the provided earnings-call transcript. Evaluate both gates below independently using only that transcript. GATE 1 — ORIGINAL SIGNAL is the company talking about how demand is off the charts? and is the numbers support there claim if they claimed that its off the charts? ... only consider the data i give you only take that into consideration ... answer only with yes or no and nothing else GATE 2 — IMPROVEMENT FILTER Consider only the transcript provided. Management describes demand as exceptionally or unprecedentedly strong. Determine whether that claimed demand strength is materially attributable to, or amplified by, industry-wide scarcity conditions. Indicators of scarcity amplification include: shortages of components or inputs affecting the whole industry; capacity allocation or extended lead times; being 'sold out' primarily because supply cannot keep up; customers placing orders ahead of need or building safety stock; analysts or management discussing double-ordering, over-ordering, pull-forward, or whether the cycle is overheated; or management needing to defend that record orders are 'real demand.' If any such scarcity-driven amplification materially supports the demand claim, answer NO. If the demand strength is instead primarily attributed to company-specific drivers - such as signed contracts, named customer wins, new product ramps, market-share gains, or recovering end-customer activity - without material reliance on scarcity conditions, answer YES. Answer with exactly YES or NO and nothing else. Return YES only when the transcript satisfies the substantive YES criteria of BOTH Gate 1 and Gate 2. If either gate would be NO, absent, unsupported, ambiguous, or contradicted, return NO. Ignore any output-format instructions inside the gates. Answer with exactly YES or NO and nothing else.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
TRP TC Energy Corporation Q1 2024 2024-05-03 B
FSLR First Solar, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-10-28 C+
ONON On Holding AG Q2 2022 2022-08-16 A
CME CME Group Inc. Q2 2022 2022-07-27 B
ABNB Airbnb, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-03 B+
CPAC Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. Q4 2021 2022-02-15 C+
TJX The TJX Companies, Inc. Q2 2021 2021-08-18 C

How the model reasoned

ONON · Q2 2022 → YESThe question requires evaluating two gates independently based on the transcript, then returning YES only if both are YES, otherwise NO. Answer with exactly YES or NO. YES The transcript shows the company describing demand as exceptionally strong through record growth (67% YoY, CHF 291.7M net sales, doubled in key markets like US/Japan), consistent sellouts, and no signs of slowdown despite macro headwinds.
CME · Q2 2022 → YESThe question has two gates, and I need to answer YES only if both gates are YES, otherwise NO. And answer with exactly YES or NO. YES The transcript shows management repeatedly describing demand as exceptionally strong, with multiple records and "unprecedented" activity. Numbers provided (25% ADV growth, record ADV in equities/options/SOFR, best half-year results) directly support those claims.
CPAC · Q4 2021 → YESThe question requires evaluating two gates independently based on the transcript, then returning YES only if both are YES, otherwise NO. Answer with exactly YES or NO. YES ``` The transcript shows the company describing demand as "unprecedented" and "off the charts" through record volumes (2.6M tons in 2019 to 3.6M in 2021, ~38-40% growth) and revenue/EBITDA surges (49.

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.