Question Bank › Earned recurrence: demand arriving from first-ha

Earned recurrence: demand arriving from first-hand-proven buyers, still early

Calls Tested
489
Answered YES
4
Hit Rate
0.8%
rare by design

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) — this company's answers

NO on the Q2 2023 call 2023-07-19 C+
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes that a meaningful share of current business growth is arriving without the company having to persuade the buyer, i.e., demand generated by parties with direct prior experience, and that this pattern is still early with most contribution ahead. Look for evidence in the transcript. Management discusses various businesses. Key points: Asset & Wealth Management, management fees, private banking, lending. They mention record management fees, growth in AUS, inflows. But is that due to existing clients expanding? They mention "long-term fee-based inflows" and "22nd consecutive quarter of long-term fee-based inflows." That suggests recurring inflows from existing clients? But is that described as driven by prior experience? They don't explicitly say that. They talk about growth in assets under supervision, but that could be market appreciation and net inflows. They don't attribute to existing clients' initiative. They also discuss transaction banking, but that's early. They mention "we're working now on getting the clients that are on the platform to really get more of their payments activity into the flow" - that implies they are working to persuade, not that it's happening on its own. They discuss equity financing growth, but that's due to strategic focus and deployment, not necessarily customer-driven. They discuss investment banking backlog rising, but that's not necessarily from existing clients' initiative. The question asks about "earned recurrence" - parties with first-hand experience generating business on their own initiative. I don't see management describing that as a current observable pattern. They talk about growth in management fees due to higher AUS, but that's not necessarily from existing clients expanding without persuasion. They mention "long-term fee-based inflows" but that could be new clients too. They also mention "we have 2 incredibly strong client franchises" but not that growth is coming without persuasion. Thus, answer NO.

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, does management describe that a MEANINGFUL SHARE OF THE COMPANY'S CURRENT BUSINESS GROWTH is arriving WITHOUT THE COMPANY HAVING TO PERSUADE THE BUYER — that is, demand is increasingly generated by parties with DIRECT PRIOR EXPERIENCE of what the company provides (customers with first-hand experience expanding, returning, renewing, deepening, or referencing; parties that have already used, deployed, trialed, tested, sampled, piloted, or bought an initial piece of what the company sells now coming back for more; an installed base pulling follow-on business through on its own), rather than by the company's own selling, marketing, pricing, promotions, or new-logo acquisition push — AND does management convey that this earned-recurrence pattern is STILL EARLY enough that most of the business it will generate is still ahead of the reported results? Answer YES when management's own words convey, in whatever form fits the business, ONE coherent phenomenon: parties with first-hand experience of the company's offering are generating business on their own initiative — as a real, current, observable pattern in how the company's demand is being produced today — and management treats this as meaningful to where the company is heading with most of the contribution still ahead. Management need not use any particular vocabulary; it may show up in how it describes demand sources, customer behavior, reorder dynamics, expansion of proven relationships, or the decreasing role of persuasion in winning business. Answer NO if growth is described mainly through the company's own selling push, pricing actions, promotions, marketing, or new-logo acquisition, however strong. NO if the 'return' activity is merely a contractually forced renewal, a standing subscription auto-charge, or an ordinary slow-order cadence, with no sense that prior experience itself is now driving the demand. NO if the earned recurrence is only hoped for, planned, or projected rather than already observable. NO if the only evidence is one isolated anecdote with no broader pattern. NO if the recurrence is already mature and fully reflected in the reported results, with no meaningful contribution still ahead. NO if management attributes the shift to a one-time event, a temporary spike, or a pull-forward it expects to reverse. NO if the idea appears only in an analyst's question that management does not itself affirm. Use only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
LTRX Lantronix, Inc. Q3 2024 2024-04-29 C
DASH DoorDash, Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-01 C+
ATI Allegheny Technologies Incorporated Q1 2018 2018-04-24 B
UPLD Upland Software, Inc. Q4 2017 2018-03-08 C+

How the model reasoned

ATI · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management describes a meaningful share of the company's current business growth arriving without the company having to persuade the buyer, from parties with direct prior...YES Management describes a meaningful share of current growth coming from parties with direct prior experience—Boeing and Airbus exercising their supply chain after assessing geopolitical risks, plus customers awarding forgings based on 2017 actions and continuing to do so in 2018—while treating this as still early, with most of the contribution 2019–2020 and beyond as the multi-year production expansion unfolds.
LTRX · Q3 2024 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that a MEANINGFUL SHARE OF THE COMPANY'S CURRENT BUSINESS GROWTH is arriving WITHOUT THE COMPANY HAVING TO PERSUADE THE BUYER — demand generated by parties wi...
DASH · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that a MEANINGFUL SHARE OF THE COMPANY'S CURRENT BUSINESS GROWTH is arriving WITHOUT THE COMPANY HAVING TO PERSUADE THE BUYER — demand generated by parties wi...

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.