Escape velocity out of a small base: management describes the business compounding at a rate its own size cannot absorb
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NOWe need answer YES/NO based on transcript. Need determine if management describes company as at point where rate of accumulating has become dominant fact, with multiples/repeated doublings of recent past, and base still small. We need analyze transcript. Management comments: Bruce Flatt says "assets under management and fees associated with them continue to grow at a rapid pace." "Fund raising ... remain strong." "We expect the percentages of overall capital pools to continue to increase substantially from today's level and the size of capital institutional funds is growing and the compounding effect of both will be significant on allocations to real assets. As a result of that if we achieve our plans over the next five years we should double the size of our business by most metrics which should result in significant growth and intrinsic value of a BAM share." That's a target/plan, not already banked. Also "we are now benefiting from work over last 20 years... investors allocating more capital now to real assets..." "we should double" is future. Brian Lawson: fee related earnings increased 8% in-line with growth in fee bearing capital. "we brought nearly $30 billion of new funds online in 2016 and we are in that window between these closings and next series." Not multiples. Question asks: Does management describe company as being at point where RATE at which business is accumulating has become dominant fact? That is, does management convey that company keeps having to describe itself in terms of multiples or repeated doublings of its own recent past rather than incremental progress, and compounding off base still small? Need see if management uses multiples for real already banked activity. Bruce mentions "double the size of our business by most metrics" over next five years if achieve plans. That's future target, not already occurred. Also "compounding effect of both will be significant" future. No repeated multiples of actual activity. They mention "more than 400 assets sold over past five years realized $44 billion vs IFRS values $41 billion" - that's a ratio 110%, not multiple of past. "nearly $30 billion of new funds online" not multiple. "3,600 megawatts" expansion, "about $1.4 billion" investment. Not multiples. Management does not frame current state as "several times what we were" with real banked activity.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-01 | A |
SNOW · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Frank Slootman repeatedly frames the current state in terms of multiples of the recent past: product revenue “growing 110% year-on-year” (more than doubling), EMEA “up 174%” and Asia-Pacific “219%”, BUILD Summit registrations “three times last year’s”, Snow Day “ 23,000 registrations”, Data Marketplace “grew 41%”, stable edges “more than 130% annual increase”, Powered By Snowflake partners “growing 137% quarter-on-quarter” and product revenue from them “173% year-on-year”.
DASH · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as still sm...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the business in terms of multiples of its recent past: non-restaurant selection "going from 0 nearly 3 years ago to a multibillion-dollar business that's at scale now growing fast"; grocery GOV "has doubled year-on-year"; international growth "at multiples of what we see around the world"; and new verticals accelerating from the prior quarter.
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Management repeatedly frames the current state using multiples of recent past activity: backlog more than doubled (from $5.2B to $11.