Escape velocity out of a small base: management describes the business compounding at a rate its own size cannot absorb
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2023 call → NOThe question asks whether management describes the company as being at a point where the RATE at which its business is accumulating has become the dominant fact about it — that is, whether management conveys that it keeps having to describe itself in terms of MULTIPLES OR REPEATED DOUBLINGS of its own recent past rather than in terms of incremental progress, and that this compounding is happening off a base management treats as still small. Let me analyze the transcript carefully. Key elements to look for: 1. Management repeatedly frames real, already-occurring activity as some multiple of what it was — doubled, tripled, several times, many times over, up from almost nothing, more in this period than in all prior periods combined, or an equivalent "how far we've come in a short time" comparison. The thing being multiplied must be REAL AND ALREADY BANKED. 2. Management treats the company as still small against what it is already doing. Let me scan the transcript for this kind of framing. Jim Taylor's opening remarks: - "our growth in overall occupancy to 94% a record for the company" - "our continued momentum in small shop occupancy as well, which grew to 89.3%, another all time record" - "Our new and renewal leasing spreads of 43% and 14% respectively" - "Our average rate on new and renewal leases of over $22 a foot, which grew our average in place rent to $16.46" - "Our delivery of another $14 million of reinvestment during the quarter at an incremental return of 10%, bringing our total delivery since we began $885 million at an incremental 11%" - "Our successful harvesting of $125 million of lower growth non-core assets" These are all record/strong results, but they're described in incremental terms — records, growth, strong performance. Not multiples. Jim Taylor: "Bottom line, we are proud of how our durable value-added business plan continues to deliver with same-store NOI and FFO growth during the quarter of 4.9% and 3.5% respectively." That's ordinary growth framing. Jim Taylor: "That visibility begins with the $60 million of ABR that we've commenced over the past year for which we will get the full benefit of in the coming 12 months. Second, we have our signed but not commenced lease pipeline, which adds $56 million of ABR that will commence as Angela will detail in a minute over the next several quarters.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-01 | A |
SNOW · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Frank Slootman repeatedly frames the current state in terms of multiples of the recent past: product revenue “growing 110% year-on-year” (more than doubling), EMEA “up 174%” and Asia-Pacific “219%”, BUILD Summit registrations “three times last year’s”, Snow Day “ 23,000 registrations”, Data Marketplace “grew 41%”, stable edges “more than 130% annual increase”, Powered By Snowflake partners “growing 137% quarter-on-quarter” and product revenue from them “173% year-on-year”.
DASH · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as still sm...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the business in terms of multiples of its recent past: non-restaurant selection "going from 0 nearly 3 years ago to a multibillion-dollar business that's at scale now growing fast"; grocery GOV "has doubled year-on-year"; international growth "at multiples of what we see around the world"; and new verticals accelerating from the prior quarter.
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Management repeatedly frames the current state using multiples of recent past activity: backlog more than doubled (from $5.2B to $11.