Escape velocity out of a small base: management describes the business compounding at a rate its own size cannot absorb
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2018 call → NOThe question asks whether management describes the company as being at a point where the rate of accumulation has become the dominant fact, with both conditions: (1) management itself reaches for multiples when describing what is happening now, and (2) management treats the company as still small against what it is already doing. Let me examine the transcript for evidence of multiples and repeated doublings. Key quotes from Will Lansing: - "we had record revenue for the second straight quarter" - "we signed $120 million of bookings, up 26% over last year" - "our upfront license sales were actually down 24% and our transactional bookings were up a whopping 44%" - "TONBELLER Compliance Solutions and our Origination Solutions were particularly strong, up 55% and 11% respectively" - "collections and recovery bookings are up 129% over last year" - "DMS bookings were up 27% over last year and 38% over last quarter, making it the biggest ever bookings quarter in the segment" - "Scores business... revenues up 32% versus the prior year and up 29% year-to-date" - "B2B side, revenues were up 42%" - "B2C revenues were up 15% this quarter and 18% year-to-date" From Mike Pung: - "recurring revenue was $195 million, up 17% from last year" - "bookings of $120 million were up 26% from last year" - "Cloud bookings were $44 million this quarter and are $95 million year-to-date, which is up more than 130% from last year" - "cloud revenues are $178 million, which is up 18% from last year" Now, the question asks about MULTIPLES or REPEATED DOUBLINGS. Let me look for language like "doubled", "tripled", "several times", "up from almost nothing", "more in this period than in all prior periods combined". The strongest multiple language: "cloud bookings... up more than 130% from last year" - that's more than double. Also "collections and recovery bookings are up 129% over last year" - also more than double. But is this "repeated doublings"? The percentages are strong but they're mostly in the 20-50% range. The 129% and 130% are more than double, but these are specific product lines. Let me look for the "still small" condition.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-01 | A |
SNOW · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Frank Slootman repeatedly frames the current state in terms of multiples of the recent past: product revenue “growing 110% year-on-year” (more than doubling), EMEA “up 174%” and Asia-Pacific “219%”, BUILD Summit registrations “three times last year’s”, Snow Day “ 23,000 registrations”, Data Marketplace “grew 41%”, stable edges “more than 130% annual increase”, Powered By Snowflake partners “growing 137% quarter-on-quarter” and product revenue from them “173% year-on-year”.
DASH · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as still sm...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the business in terms of multiples of its recent past: non-restaurant selection "going from 0 nearly 3 years ago to a multibillion-dollar business that's at scale now growing fast"; grocery GOV "has doubled year-on-year"; international growth "at multiples of what we see around the world"; and new verticals accelerating from the prior quarter.
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Management repeatedly frames the current state using multiples of recent past activity: backlog more than doubled (from $5.2B to $11.