Escape velocity out of a small base: management describes the business compounding at a rate its own size cannot absorb
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if the transcript shows management describing the company's current state in terms of multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and that the company is still small relative to that activity. Let's analyze the transcript. The call is about Q3 2022 results. Management discusses Waukegan (temporary casino) and Chamonix (Colorado) construction, and other properties. Key points: Dan Lee says: "the permanent one will be bigger than our whole company and the temporary one might be bigger than our whole company." That's a multiple: the new casino (temporary) might be bigger than the whole company's current revenue? Actually he says "bigger than our whole company" - meaning the temporary casino's revenue potential might exceed the entire company's current revenue. That's a multiple of the company's size. But is that already banked? No, it's not open yet. He's talking about future potential. So that's not already-occurring activity. He also says: "The recent results show that the Rivers Casino, which is about a half an hour to our South is doing about $600 million in revenue. The Potawatomi Casino in Milwaukee, which is just over half an hour to our North does about $400 million and the Grand Vic, which is to our Southwest, is doing about $120 million. So the existing casinos in our neck of the woods are doing a $1.2 billion, if we just take a small piece of that business and then we'll actually grow the market..." That's about market size, not the company's own activity. He talks about the construction progress, hiring, etc. He says: "We should have all the machines in by the end of the month be about 1,000 slot machines, 50 table games, two restaurants." That's about the new casino. He says: "And so it's going to be hard to find enough dealers and get them all licensed and trained and everything to open everything at once." That's about staffing. He says: "In Colorado, we're also making good progress." etc. He mentions: "We've also been refurbishing Bronco Billy’s, which is next to Chamonix. And in this past quarter, about half of it was closed, including the steakhouse. So it's currently operating with much less gaming capacity than it has had in the past." That's about a decline.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-01 | A |
SNOW · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Frank Slootman repeatedly frames the current state in terms of multiples of the recent past: product revenue “growing 110% year-on-year” (more than doubling), EMEA “up 174%” and Asia-Pacific “219%”, BUILD Summit registrations “three times last year’s”, Snow Day “ 23,000 registrations”, Data Marketplace “grew 41%”, stable edges “more than 130% annual increase”, Powered By Snowflake partners “growing 137% quarter-on-quarter” and product revenue from them “173% year-on-year”.
DASH · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as still sm...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the business in terms of multiples of its recent past: non-restaurant selection "going from 0 nearly 3 years ago to a multibillion-dollar business that's at scale now growing fast"; grocery GOV "has doubled year-on-year"; international growth "at multiples of what we see around the world"; and new verticals accelerating from the prior quarter.
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Management repeatedly frames the current state using multiples of recent past activity: backlog more than doubled (from $5.2B to $11.