Escape velocity out of a small base: management describes the business compounding at a rate its own size cannot absorb
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes the company as being at a point where the rate of accumulation has become the dominant fact, with multiples and repeated doublings, and that compounding is happening off a base still small. Let's analyze the transcript. Key points from management: - Nolan Watson: "our portfolio is continuing to perform very well. During the second quarter, we recognized operating cash flow excluding changes in working capital of $12.3 million and with Cerro Moro and Aurizona kicking in early next year. It won't be long until we are setting new quarterly cash flow records." That's incremental, not multiples. - He talks about recent royalty purchases: "we have purchased a total of eight royalties recently... each one is listed here on the slide... various countries throughout Africa." He emphasizes size of land packages, "huge land packages." He says "we are buying very interesting things." He mentions that the total amount paid for all royalties plus equity is approximately $4 million, and the equity is now worth more than $4 million, so "we've effectively gotten eight of these royalties on massive land packages for effectively free." That's a nice deal but not necessarily a multiple of past activity. - He says "we have a number of substantial deals in our pipeline that we hope to close before year end that will be near term cash flowing things." That's pipeline, not banked. - He says "we are very focused on increasing our cash flow and doing larger deals, and doing those deals on assets that also have expiration outside. But we are also very excited about the totality of the royalty portfolio that we are assembling because when investors invest in Sandstorm, what they are effectively getting is a piece of all 189 royalties all wrapped up into one investment." That's a number of royalties, but not necessarily a multiple. - Erfan Kazemi: "revenue that was generated from Sandstorm's royalty assets during the quarter totaled $18.9 million. This was the second highest total in company history." That's a record, not a multiple. - He says "attributable gold equivalent ounces sold are up by more than 10% when compared to the same quarter last year." That's 10% growth, not a multiple. - He says "overall revenue is up 15% and attributable production up 11% compared to the last six months of 2017." That's incremental.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-01 | A |
SNOW · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Frank Slootman repeatedly frames the current state in terms of multiples of the recent past: product revenue “growing 110% year-on-year” (more than doubling), EMEA “up 174%” and Asia-Pacific “219%”, BUILD Summit registrations “three times last year’s”, Snow Day “ 23,000 registrations”, Data Marketplace “grew 41%”, stable edges “more than 130% annual increase”, Powered By Snowflake partners “growing 137% quarter-on-quarter” and product revenue from them “173% year-on-year”.
DASH · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as still sm...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the business in terms of multiples of its recent past: non-restaurant selection "going from 0 nearly 3 years ago to a multibillion-dollar business that's at scale now growing fast"; grocery GOV "has doubled year-on-year"; international growth "at multiples of what we see around the world"; and new verticals accelerating from the prior quarter.
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Management repeatedly frames the current state using multiples of recent past activity: backlog more than doubled (from $5.2B to $11.