Escape velocity out of a small base: management describes the business compounding at a rate its own size cannot absorb
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes the company as being at a point where the rate of accumulation is the dominant fact, with multiples and a sense of being small relative to what's happening. Let's examine the transcript. Key points: David Simon says "Our profitability and cash flow have significantly increased." "Second-quarter funds from operations were $1.22 billion, or $3.24 per share." "We generated over $1 billion in cash from operations in the quarter, which was $125 million more than the first quarter." "Domestic international property NOI combined, increased 16.6% year-over-year for the quarter and 2.8% for the first half of the year." "Malls and outlets occupancy at the end of the Second Quarter was 91.8%, an increase of 100 basis points." "Leasing activity accelerated in the quarter. We signed nearly 1400 leases for approximately 5.2 million square feet, and have a significant number of leases in our pipeline. Through the first 6 months, we signed 2500 leases for over 900 -- I'm sorry, 9.5 million square feet. Our team executed leases for 3 million more square feet or over approximately 800 more deals compared to the first 6 months this year, as well as -- I'm sorry, compared to the first six months of 2019." So they compare to 2019, not multiples. They say "3 million more square feet" and "800 more deals" - that's incremental, not multiples. They mention "We have completed nearly 90% of our expiring leases for 2021." That's a percentage. They talk about retail sales: "Total sales for the month of June were equal to 06/2019, and up 80% compared to last year. And were approximately 5% higher than May sales. If you exclude two well-known tenants, our mall sales were up 8% more than compared to 06/2019." So up 80% year-over-year, but that's a comparison to a collapsed prior period (COVID). They also say "multiple regions in the U.S. recorded higher sales volume in June and for the second quarter compared to our 2019 levels." That's not multiples. They talk about SPARC: "All of our global brands within SPARC Group outperformed their budget in the quarter on sales, gross margin, and EBITDA, led by Forever 21 and Aeropostale, SPARC's newest brand, Eddie Bauer, also outperformed our initial expectations." No multiples. They talk about JCPenney: "They continue to outperform their plan.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-01 | A |
SNOW · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Frank Slootman repeatedly frames the current state in terms of multiples of the recent past: product revenue “growing 110% year-on-year” (more than doubling), EMEA “up 174%” and Asia-Pacific “219%”, BUILD Summit registrations “three times last year’s”, Snow Day “ 23,000 registrations”, Data Marketplace “grew 41%”, stable edges “more than 130% annual increase”, Powered By Snowflake partners “growing 137% quarter-on-quarter” and product revenue from them “173% year-on-year”.
DASH · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as still sm...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the business in terms of multiples of its recent past: non-restaurant selection "going from 0 nearly 3 years ago to a multibillion-dollar business that's at scale now growing fast"; grocery GOV "has doubled year-on-year"; international growth "at multiples of what we see around the world"; and new verticals accelerating from the prior quarter.
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Management repeatedly frames the current state using multiples of recent past activity: backlog more than doubled (from $5.2B to $11.