First tranche delivered, larger tranches en route: the same engine that just produced has visibly more already scheduled
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2015 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes one identifiable engine of new business with both: (1) a first tranche actually landed in the just-reported period (Q4 2015 or full year 2015), and (2) larger tranches already in motion behind it, with the remainder larger than what has been recognized so far. Let's scan the transcript for potential engines. - Health Net acquisition: Not yet closed, pending California approval. So no landed tranche. - Nebraska: Selected as one of three MCOs for Heritage Health program. Contract expected to commence January 1, 2017. So not yet landed in 2015. No. - Arizona: Expanded contract in southern region, first full quarter in Q4 2015. Membership doubled. That's a landed tranche. But is there a larger tranche behind it? The contract is ongoing, but management doesn't describe further tranches of the same engine. It's just the contract itself. No. - Mississippi: Became $1B market, began inpatient services in December. That's a landed tranche. But again, no mention of larger tranches behind it. - Louisiana: Became $1B market, more than doubled at-risk members, expanded to behavioral health in December. Again, landed but no larger tranche described. - Oregon: Trillium acquisition, first full quarter. No larger tranche. - Dual eligible: 26,300 members, but management says not a significant near-term growth driver. No. - Medicaid expansion: 450,000 members, more than double. But that's a cumulative number, not a specific engine with tranches. - Health Insurance Marketplace: Expanded to 13th state, New Hampshire, and increased footprint. But is there a first tranche landed? They have enrollment in 2016, but the just-reported period is 2015. They had 146,000 members in 2015. They expanded to New Hampshire for 2016. But the question is about the just-reported period (Q4 2015 and full year 2015). The marketplace is an ongoing business, not a specific engine with tranches. - Centurion: Florida Department of Corrections contract. They reached a formal agreement. Contract expected to commence in Q2 2016. So not yet landed in 2015. No. So we need an engine where a first tranche actually landed in 2015, and larger tranches are already in motion behind it, with the remainder larger than what has been recognized. Look at the Centurion contract: They reached an agreement, but it's expected to commence in Q2 2016.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| ATAT | Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-23 | B+ |
| LINC | Lincoln Educational Services Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-06 | B+ |
| LTRX | Lantronix, Inc. | Q3 2024 | 2024-04-29 | C |
| E | Eni S.p.A. | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-24 | B+ |
| FRPH | FRP Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-07 | C+ |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab Limited | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-28 | C |
| VMI | Valmont Industries, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-22 | C |
| TBLA | Taboola.com Ltd. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B+ |
| JLL | Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | F |
| TEL | TE Connectivity Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-01 | B |
| CLNE | Clean Energy Fuels Corp. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-09 | C+ |
| LUCD | Lucid Diagnostics Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-16 | C+ |
| CEIX | CONSOL Energy Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-07 | B |
| ARE | Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-31 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| CDMO | Avid Bioservices, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-03-08 | B+ |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-26 | A |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-20 | B+ |
| MAS | Masco Corporation | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-30 | C |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | Q1 2019 | 2018-09-13 | B+ |
| SRDX | Surmodics, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-08-06 | A |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| MGA | Magna International Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | B+ |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| FLEX | Flex Ltd. | Q1 2018 | 2017-07-28 | F |
| HR | Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-08 | A |
| BDN | Brandywine Realty Trust | Q1 2017 | 2017-04-21 | C+ |
| WTS | Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-10 | B |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-03 | C+ |
| LBTYK | Liberty Global's | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-10 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| MTRX | Matrix Service Company | Q3 2016 | 2016-05-05 | D |
| CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | F |
| DD | DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-26 | B+ |
CDMO · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: NO The transcript describes the first phase of the Myford expansion as now operational and scheduling client projects, with management noting they are already utilizing the new space and that an extra $5 million is arguably in backlog attributable to it.
LINC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: YES The transcript identifies the new-campus expansion strategy as the engine. East Point opened in Q1 with 29 starts and $90k revenue (first tranche, concrete and delivered).
LTRX · Q3 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes one identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: a first tranche has actually landed in the just-reported period, and larger tranches...