First tranche delivered, larger tranches en route: the same engine that just produced has visibly more already scheduled
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes one identifiable engine of new business with both: (1) a first tranche actually landed in the just-reported period (Q2 2023), and (2) larger tranches already in motion behind it, with the remainder larger than what's been delivered. Look for specific projects or expansions. The transcript mentions several: Lake Charles LNG (but that's still in development, no delivery yet), Nederland NGL export expansion (FID'd, expected in service mid-2025, so not yet delivered), Marcus Hook optimization (not FID'd), Frac 8 (mechanically complete, to be in service around Sept 1, so not yet in Q2), Bear processing plant (placed into service in June, that's a delivery), Grey Wolf (placed into service Dec 2022, so prior period). Also Gulf Run pipeline (placed into service Dec 2022, so prior period). Also the Lotus acquisition (closed in May 2023, that's a delivery of an acquisition, but is that an engine? It's an acquisition, not a new business engine with tranches). Also the HOA for Lake Charles LNG (but those are non-binding, not landed). Look for something where a first tranche landed in Q2 2023 and larger tranches are already in motion. For example, the Bear processing plant was placed into service in June 2023. Is there a larger tranche? They mention "we continue to evaluate the necessity and potential timing of adding another processing plant in the Permian Basin." That's not committed. So no. What about the NGL export volumes? They had record exports, but that's ongoing business, not a new engine with tranches. What about the expansion at Nederland? That's FID'd but not yet in service, so no delivery. What about the Gulf Run? Already in service, but they are adding compression to add 1 Bcf capacity, but that's not yet delivered. What about the ethane exports? They mention record ethane exports, but that's ongoing. Look for something like a multi-phase project where phase 1 is done and phase 2 is underway. For example, the Bear plant is the eighth 200 MMcf/d plant. They have been building these plants. But is there a larger tranche? They say "we continue to evaluate the necessity and potential timing of adding another processing plant" - that's not committed. What about the Frac 8? It's not yet in service, so not landed. What about the Lake Charles LNG? No. What about the carbon capture? Not yet.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| ATAT | Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-23 | B+ |
| LINC | Lincoln Educational Services Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-06 | B+ |
| LTRX | Lantronix, Inc. | Q3 2024 | 2024-04-29 | C |
| E | Eni S.p.A. | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-24 | B+ |
| FRPH | FRP Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-07 | C+ |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab Limited | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-28 | C |
| VMI | Valmont Industries, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-22 | C |
| TBLA | Taboola.com Ltd. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B+ |
| JLL | Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | F |
| TEL | TE Connectivity Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-01 | B |
| CLNE | Clean Energy Fuels Corp. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-09 | C+ |
| LUCD | Lucid Diagnostics Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-16 | C+ |
| CEIX | CONSOL Energy Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-07 | B |
| ARE | Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-31 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| CDMO | Avid Bioservices, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-03-08 | B+ |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-26 | A |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-20 | B+ |
| MAS | Masco Corporation | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-30 | C |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | Q1 2019 | 2018-09-13 | B+ |
| SRDX | Surmodics, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-08-06 | A |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| MGA | Magna International Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | B+ |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| FLEX | Flex Ltd. | Q1 2018 | 2017-07-28 | F |
| HR | Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-08 | A |
| BDN | Brandywine Realty Trust | Q1 2017 | 2017-04-21 | C+ |
| WTS | Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-10 | B |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-03 | C+ |
| LBTYK | Liberty Global's | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-10 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| MTRX | Matrix Service Company | Q3 2016 | 2016-05-05 | D |
| CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | F |
| DD | DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-26 | B+ |
CDMO · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: NO The transcript describes the first phase of the Myford expansion as now operational and scheduling client projects, with management noting they are already utilizing the new space and that an extra $5 million is arguably in backlog attributable to it.
LINC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: YES The transcript identifies the new-campus expansion strategy as the engine. East Point opened in Q1 with 29 starts and $90k revenue (first tranche, concrete and delivered).
LTRX · Q3 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes one identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: a first tranche has actually landed in the just-reported period, and larger tranches...