First tranche delivered, larger tranches en route: the same engine that just produced has visibly more already scheduled
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes an identifiable engine of new business with both: (1) a first tranche actually landed in the reported period (Q4 2022), and (2) larger tranches already in motion behind it, with the remainder larger than what's been delivered. The engine must be specific, and management must treat delivering the remainder as execution/timing, not winning new demand. Scan the transcript for potential engines. The five growth vectors: private brands, off-mall stores, marketplace, luxury, personalized offers. Also other initiatives like Toys"R"Us, etc. Check each: 1. Private brands reimagination: They started updating INC in mid-2022, Q4 sales up 28%. But that's a brand refresh, not a new engine with tranches. They plan to launch new brands in back half of 2023, but that's future, not committed? They say "new brands start to launch in the back half of '23" - that's planned, not yet in motion? Also the first tranche is INC update, but larger tranches are other brands? Not clearly a single engine with committed larger tranches. Management doesn't say "we have delivered X, and Y is already contracted." So no. 2. Off-mall smaller format stores: They have 8 Market by Macy's and 2 Bloomie's. They opened some, and in Q4 those open over a year had sales increases. They plan to open 4 Market and 1 Bloomie's in 2023. Is that a larger tranche? The first tranche is the existing stores, the continuation is the planned openings. But are the planned openings "already committed, scheduled, contracted, in production, ramping, or otherwise concretely underway"? They say "we plan on opening 4 Market by Macy's and 1 Bloomie's" - that's a plan, not yet under construction? They also say "if new locations continue to outperform, we will look to incrementally accelerate off-mall openings beginning in 2024." So the continuation is conditional on performance, not already secured. Also the existing stores are the delivered portion, but the planned openings are not yet in motion? They might be in development, but management doesn't say they are under construction or committed. They say "we plan" - that's intention, not commitment. So no. 3. Marketplace: Launched in September 2022, ended year with 500 brands and 20 new categories. They plan to add 2,000 brands in 2023 and launch Bloomingdale's marketplace in back half.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| ATAT | Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-23 | B+ |
| LINC | Lincoln Educational Services Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-06 | B+ |
| LTRX | Lantronix, Inc. | Q3 2024 | 2024-04-29 | C |
| E | Eni S.p.A. | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-24 | B+ |
| FRPH | FRP Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-07 | C+ |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab Limited | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-28 | C |
| VMI | Valmont Industries, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-22 | C |
| TBLA | Taboola.com Ltd. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B+ |
| JLL | Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | F |
| TEL | TE Connectivity Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-01 | B |
| CLNE | Clean Energy Fuels Corp. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-09 | C+ |
| LUCD | Lucid Diagnostics Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-16 | C+ |
| CEIX | CONSOL Energy Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-07 | B |
| ARE | Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-31 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| CDMO | Avid Bioservices, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-03-08 | B+ |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-26 | A |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-20 | B+ |
| MAS | Masco Corporation | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-30 | C |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | Q1 2019 | 2018-09-13 | B+ |
| SRDX | Surmodics, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-08-06 | A |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| MGA | Magna International Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | B+ |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| FLEX | Flex Ltd. | Q1 2018 | 2017-07-28 | F |
| HR | Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-08 | A |
| BDN | Brandywine Realty Trust | Q1 2017 | 2017-04-21 | C+ |
| WTS | Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-10 | B |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-03 | C+ |
| LBTYK | Liberty Global's | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-10 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| MTRX | Matrix Service Company | Q3 2016 | 2016-05-05 | D |
| CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | F |
| DD | DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-26 | B+ |
CDMO · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: NO The transcript describes the first phase of the Myford expansion as now operational and scheduling client projects, with management noting they are already utilizing the new space and that an extra $5 million is arguably in backlog attributable to it.
LINC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: YES The transcript identifies the new-campus expansion strategy as the engine. East Point opened in Q1 with 29 starts and $90k revenue (first tranche, concrete and delivered).
LTRX · Q3 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes one identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: a first tranche has actually landed in the just-reported period, and larger tranches...