First tranche delivered, larger tranches en route: the same engine that just produced has visibly more already scheduled
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2024 call → NOWe need answer only YES or NO. Need evaluate based on transcript. Need identify engine of new business with first tranche landed and larger tranches in motion. Let's parse. Management discusses several: full-thickness skin defects expansion, RECELL GO approval pending, PermeaDerm distribution with Stedical, international expansion, vitiligo. Need see if any has both landed and larger in motion. Full-thickness: launched June 2023, added 73 new accounts, 22 in Q1. They expected more. VAC submissions 178, 8 rejections, Q2 expect 46 accounts approved. Is that an engine? First tranche landed: 73 accounts added, 22 in Q1, revenue from full-thickness? They don't break out. But they say slower conversion, below expectations. Larger tranches in motion? They expect 46 accounts approved in Q2, but that's expected, not yet committed? They have submissions and dates, but approvals not yet obtained. Management says "we expect 46 accounts to be approved" - not secured. Also they say "we believe we will continue to become more efficient" - not concrete. So no. RECELL GO: nearing FDA approval, 180-day ends May 30, assuming approval, top 28 burn accounts prioritized for conversion in June. No first tranche landed yet; approval not obtained. No. PermeaDerm: distribution agreement with Stedical in early January, launched in U.S. March 23. Wound care revenue less than 1% in Q1. They have inventory $3.1 million, gross sales range $6 million with no significant additional expense. Is that first tranche landed? They launched and had some revenue less than 1% of $11.1M, so maybe ~$100k? They say "Since launch in last week of March, wound care revenue is less than 1%." That is actual delivered. Larger tranches in motion? They expect value to increase as add new products and sales team gains experience. But no committed volumes, no scheduled orders. They say "we will be able to give more guidance in August" - not in motion. So no. International expansion: expect to execute distributor agreements during remaining part of year. No landed. Vitiligo: TONE study follow-ups begin June, PMA supplement submit June, publication end 2024, coverage discussions Q2 2025, rollout Q4 2025. No landed. BARDA: first call on inventory up to 1,000 units in event of national disaster. No actual purchase. Thus no engine with both. Need answer NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| ATAT | Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-23 | B+ |
| LINC | Lincoln Educational Services Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-06 | B+ |
| LTRX | Lantronix, Inc. | Q3 2024 | 2024-04-29 | C |
| E | Eni S.p.A. | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-24 | B+ |
| FRPH | FRP Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-07 | C+ |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab Limited | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-28 | C |
| VMI | Valmont Industries, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-22 | C |
| TBLA | Taboola.com Ltd. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B+ |
| JLL | Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | F |
| TEL | TE Connectivity Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-01 | B |
| CLNE | Clean Energy Fuels Corp. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-09 | C+ |
| LUCD | Lucid Diagnostics Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-16 | C+ |
| CEIX | CONSOL Energy Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-07 | B |
| ARE | Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-31 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| CDMO | Avid Bioservices, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-03-08 | B+ |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-26 | A |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-20 | B+ |
| MAS | Masco Corporation | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-30 | C |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | Q1 2019 | 2018-09-13 | B+ |
| SRDX | Surmodics, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-08-06 | A |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| MGA | Magna International Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | B+ |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| FLEX | Flex Ltd. | Q1 2018 | 2017-07-28 | F |
| HR | Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-08 | A |
| BDN | Brandywine Realty Trust | Q1 2017 | 2017-04-21 | C+ |
| WTS | Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-10 | B |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-03 | C+ |
| LBTYK | Liberty Global's | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-10 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| MTRX | Matrix Service Company | Q3 2016 | 2016-05-05 | D |
| CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | F |
| DD | DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-26 | B+ |
CDMO · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: NO The transcript describes the first phase of the Myford expansion as now operational and scheduling client projects, with management noting they are already utilizing the new space and that an extra $5 million is arguably in backlog attributable to it.
LINC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: YES The transcript identifies the new-campus expansion strategy as the engine. East Point opened in Q1 with 29 starts and $90k revenue (first tranche, concrete and delivered).
LTRX · Q3 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes one identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: a first tranche has actually landed in the just-reported period, and larger tranches...