First tranche delivered, larger tranches en route: the same engine that just produced has visibly more already scheduled
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2021 call → NOWe need answer YES/NO. Need analyze transcript. Need identify engine of new business with first tranche landed and larger tranches in motion, same engine, remainder larger. Management describes VAPS rollout for portable storage units? Let's examine. Brad: "And I'm extremely excited about the initial customer interest in our VAPS offering for portable storage units, which represents another $50 million of incremental revenue, which will be piloted and launched in 2022." That is not landed yet, pilot/launch in 2022. No. Storage VAPS: "By the end of 2022, every storage branch will have a VAPS offer for a ground-level office, representing another $50 million of revenue opportunity." Not landed? They are rolling out initial offering? "we'll roll out our initial offering for portable storage units." "we are also in the process of rolling out VAPS for our storage branches. By the end of 2022, every storage branch will have a VAPS offer for a ground-level office" This is plan, not first tranche landed? Maybe they have some? No specific. Acquisitions: 7 acquisitions completed in second half, contributed $8 million revenue in 2021, modestly dilutive. Larger tranches? M&A pipeline robust, will continue. But is that an engine? First tranche landed (acquisitions closed) and larger tranches in motion? Management says pipeline robust, expect continue, but not committed/scheduled. No. ERP migration? Completed, enabling synergies. Not new business engine. VAPS in Modular: "Over last 12 months, North America Modular segment achieved VAPS delivered rate of $393, up 26% year-over-year. VAPS has been differentiator... convergence of entire North American portfolio to this rate represents $150 million of organic revenue growth opportunity over 3 years. Further achievement of $600 per unit per month milestone... represents yet another $200 million..." This is ongoing VAPS penetration. First tranche landed? VAPS delivered rate already achieved, revenue recognized. Larger tranches? "convergence of entire portfolio to this rate represents $150 million opportunity over 3 years" and $600 milestone. But is that "already in motion" or just opportunity? Management says "We see a clear path to this milestone via thoughtful introduction..." Not committed. Also VAPS is existing business, not new engine? It is a growth lever.
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| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| ATAT | Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-23 | B+ |
| LINC | Lincoln Educational Services Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-06 | B+ |
| LTRX | Lantronix, Inc. | Q3 2024 | 2024-04-29 | C |
| E | Eni S.p.A. | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-24 | B+ |
| FRPH | FRP Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-07 | C+ |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab Limited | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-28 | C |
| VMI | Valmont Industries, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-22 | C |
| TBLA | Taboola.com Ltd. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B+ |
| JLL | Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | F |
| TEL | TE Connectivity Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-01 | B |
| CLNE | Clean Energy Fuels Corp. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-09 | C+ |
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| CEIX | CONSOL Energy Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-07 | B |
| ARE | Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-31 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| CDMO | Avid Bioservices, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-03-08 | B+ |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-26 | A |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-20 | B+ |
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| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| FLEX | Flex Ltd. | Q1 2018 | 2017-07-28 | F |
| HR | Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-08 | A |
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| LBTYK | Liberty Global's | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-10 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| MTRX | Matrix Service Company | Q3 2016 | 2016-05-05 | D |
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CDMO · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: NO The transcript describes the first phase of the Myford expansion as now operational and scheduling client projects, with management noting they are already utilizing the new space and that an extra $5 million is arguably in backlog attributable to it.
LINC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: YES The transcript identifies the new-campus expansion strategy as the engine. East Point opened in Q1 with 29 starts and $90k revenue (first tranche, concrete and delivered).
LTRX · Q3 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes one identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: a first tranche has actually landed in the just-reported period, and larger tranches...