Growing out of the old self: management itself says the company has quietly become a different business, and the numbers
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the company is now running on a different basis than its reported results and reputation were built on, with both halves: (1) a change of basis already real, and (2) management says the record and perception lag the change. Let's analyze the transcript. Key points from management: - Jeremy Male: "We're pleased to be here sharing our fourth quarter results and 2024 outlook." He highlights accomplishments: revenues up 3% organic, U.S. billboard up 4%, growth driven by higher rates, expanding digital revenue, and automated sales platform including programmatic. "These channels comprised approximately 16% of our digital revenues in the fourth quarter, up from 10% in the first quarter and single-digits in 2022." That indicates a growing shift to automated/programmatic. - He mentions sale of Canadian business, but that's a divestiture, not a change in basis. - He talks about XLabs creative team, but that's not a fundamental change. - In Q4 results: U.S. Media revenue up 1.1%, Other up 5.9%. Billboard up 3%, transit down 4% due to tech, financial, entertainment. He notes best categories: CPG, legal, education, retail; weaker: tech, government, financial, entertainment. - Slide 7: U.S. billboard yield growth up 3%, driven by digital conversions, rate, and higher programmatic and other automated transaction revenue. - Slide 8: digital revenue growing 9%, representing nearly 36% of total digital revenues (actually "total revenue representing nearly 36% of total digital revenues" - likely a typo, but it says digital revenue is 36% of total revenue? Actually it says "total revenue representing nearly 36% of total digital revenues" - that doesn't make sense. Probably means digital revenue is 36% of total revenue? But it says "up to 33% last year." So digital revenue is 36% of total revenue, up from 33%. That's a significant shift. - Matt Siegel: expenses, lease expense, etc. He discusses MTA deployment, capital expenditures. - On AFFO guidance: "we currently expect reported consolidated AFFO growth in the high single-digit range with 2023 to AFFO of $271 million, driven principally by improvement in OIBDA." He notes assumes June 30 close for Canada sale.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANG | Sangoma Technologies Corporation | Q2 2024 | 2024-02-08 | D |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| KD | Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-01 | C+ |
| CAG | Conagra Brands, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2016-12-22 | C+ |
CALX · Q1 2023 → YESThe question is whether management conveys that the company today is running on a different basis than what its reported results and reputation were built on. Both parts: a change of basis already rea...YES The transcript shows management describing the company as now operating on a fundamentally different basis—selling into a new market of broadband service providers building consolidated networks, shifting from a legacy cyclical model to sequential revenue through platforms, clouds, and managed services—while treating this as an accomplished reality today, not a future plan. They emphasize numbers like 988 BSP deployments, 865 cloud customers, and 334 managed services customers, along with three years of over 25% growth, as evidence of this new foundation already in place.
SANG · Q2 2024 → YESThe question is whether management conveys that the company today is running on a different basis than the one its reported results and reputation were built on. Both parts: a real change of basis alr...
WD · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is whether management conveys that the company today is running on a different basis than the company its reported results and reputation were built on. Specifically, two parts: a change ...