Question Bank › Identified near-term contributors not yet in the

Identified near-term contributors not yet in the reported numbers

Calls Tested
992
Answered YES
426
Hit Rate
42.9%
rare by design

Aflac Incorporated (AFL) — this company's answers

NO on the Q2 2023 call 2023-08-02 C+
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2023 call → NO我们根据问题要求,判断管理层是否指认了具体、已确定的新增业务来源,这些来源已经锁定或正在进行中,但对已报告业绩贡献甚微或没有贡献,并预计在接下来约一年内开始或增加贡献,从而使报告数字低估了公司已落实的业务。 在转录中,管理层提到了几个具体项目: 1. 日本市场:新癌症产品WINGS已在所有渠道推出,包括日本邮政(Japan Post),并导致销售增长。但这是已反映在第二季度结果中的。 2. 即将推出的新医疗产品计划在九月中旬推出,这属于未来产品,尚未上市,但管理层表示已准备就绪。这是否算“已锁定或正在进行中”?产品已设计好,即将推出,但尚未销售,所以对当前结果无贡献,未来会开始贡献。但它是新产品,属于产品发布,且时间紧迫。这符合条件吗?问题要求“已锁定或正在进行中”,即“已获得或已批准”。产品推出是公司自己决定的,不是外部批准。但可以视为“已在进行中”,因为已准备就绪。它将在未来几个季度开始贡献。但管理层没有明确说会带来多少增量,只是说预期良好。而且,它会替代旧产品,可能只是维持业务,不一定增加总收入。但管理层说“我们预期这个产品会很好地销售”,属于乐观,但不一定是具体已确定的贡献。此外,它可能只是产品更新,不一定增加整体业务量。 3. 美国:新的癌症保护保险政策,已推出,但属于新增强化,已反映在结果中?管理层说“我们继续看到成功”,但那是已发生的。 4. 美国:新团体自愿定期寿险产品,上周宣布,属于新推出,但尚未销售?它刚宣布,可能刚开始销售,但尚未在结果中体现。这是具体产品发布,且是短期。 5. 日本邮政渠道:销售正在逐步增加,但已开始贡献,且管理层表示还有增长空间。但已部分反映在第二季度结果中。 问题要求“已经锁定或正在进行中”但“贡献很少或没有贡献”并“预计在接下来一年内开始或增加”。日本邮政的癌症销售已经开始贡献,但管理层说“还有更多跑道”,但那是持续增长,不是从零开始。新医疗产品是未推出,但即将推出,属于未来。美国的新人寿产品也是刚宣布,属于新。 管理层是否明确指出这些会增加重大贡献?对于医疗产品,他们只是说“准备推出”,但未量化。对于人寿产品,他们说“看到市场机会”,属于机会。 另外,管理层提到“我们继续投资于增长平台”,但那不是具体来源。 关键点:管理层明确指认了具体的新产品(医疗产品,九月推出)和新渠道(日本邮政癌症销售正在增加)。但日本邮政已贡献了第二季度销售,所以不算“贡献很少或没有”。医疗产品是即将推出,但尚未贡献,且管理层表示这将推动销售。但管理层没有说它会带来净增量,可能只是替代。 问题要求“已经锁定或正在进行中”且“贡献很少或没有”,并“开始或增加贡献”。医疗产品是具体的,已确定要推出,且时间紧迫。它符合“产品发布刚上线或即将上线”。但管理层是否说它会增加整体结果?他们没有量化,但说“准备推出具有竞争力的产品”,隐含会带动销售。从上下文看,他们预期这会推动销售。但问题也要求“贡献是重大的”。没有量化,但可能。 对比问题中的例子:新产品或服务刚上线或即将上线。这里医疗产品确实即将上线。而且管理层说“我们预期这个产品会很受欢迎”,但这不是保证。 但需要注意:管理层在回答中提到了“我们即将推出新的医疗产品”,并且在销售讨论中,他们提到“我们将于九月中旬推出新医疗产品”。这属于具体已确定。但贡献尚未反映。他们期望它贡献。 然而,在回答日本销售时,他们已经把癌症产品的成功归因于新产品的推出。医疗产品是新的,但可能对整体销售有贡献,但也是更新产品,可能只是维持。 此外,美国的人寿产品也是刚宣布,但管理层没有说具体贡献时间。 我认为,管理层在多个地方提到了即将推出的医疗产品,但未说明其贡献的规模或时间,只是简单提及。而且,在讨论未来增长时,他们更多是谈论机会和策略,而非具体已确定的来源。 所以,可能答案是否,因为没有明确指出“这些贡献者将增加结果”且是重大的,并且是具体已确定的。 但让我们重新阅读:在Q&A中,当被问及医疗产品对当前销售的影响时,他们讨论了对销售的影响,并说“预计会顺利”。但那是关于销售,不是关于整体业绩。 另外,在Fred的发言中,他说“我们预期在九月中旬推出新医疗产品”并说“我们相信简化产品是关键”,但没有说它会带来增量。 还有一个问题:日本邮政的销售是具体渠道,但已经贡献了,所以不算。 因此,我认为没有明确指出具体已锁定但尚未贡献的来源。医疗产品是计划中的,但尚未“已锁定”因为它只是内部批准,但问题允许“即将上线”。但管理层没有说它会产生重大影响。 我倾向于回答NO。 但为了更准确,再检查一下:在回答关于新医疗产品是否影响销售时,管理层说“我们预期它将正常推出”,但未说增量。 我选择NO。

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, does management point to SPECIFIC, IDENTIFIED sources of additional business that are ALREADY SECURED OR ALREADY IN MOTION but have contributed LITTLE OR NOTHING to the results just reported — and indicate that their contribution is expected to BEGIN OR RAMP WITHIN ROUGHLY THE NEXT YEAR, so that the reported numbers understate the business the company has already put in place? Answer YES when management, in its own words, identifies one or more concrete, near-dated incremental contributors — in whatever form fits the business — such as: a new facility, capacity, store base, fleet, or asset that is built or being commissioned and starts producing soon; a signed contract, program, or partnership whose deliveries or volumes are only now starting; a newly won customer or group of customers whose spending has only begun to phase in; a product, service, or market launch that has just gone live or is imminent after being secured or approved; or an acquisition or expansion that closed too recently to show in the period — AND management conveys that these identified contributors will add meaningfully to the company's results as they come online over the coming quarters. The contributors must be described as real and specific (nameable things that exist or are committed), not as pipeline, opportunity, or hoped-for demand; and the timing must be near-term (beginning or ramping over the next few quarters), not a distant or undated future. Answer NO if the forward story is generic optimism, market opportunity, or pipeline talk without identified contributors already secured or in motion; NO if the identified items are already fully reflected in the reported results with no meaningful ramp still ahead; NO if the contributors are contingent on approvals, financing, negotiations, or decisions not yet obtained; NO if the expected contribution is described as immaterial, offsetting declines elsewhere, or merely returning the business to where it was; and NO if the idea appears only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself affirm. Use only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
FRBA First Bank Q2 2024 2024-07-26 A
TPH Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. Q2 2024 2024-07-25 A
MMLP Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Q2 2024 2024-07-18 B
ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-06-11 C+
BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. Q1 2025 2024-05-30 C
CRGO Freightos Limited Q1 2024 2024-05-20 C+
BIOX Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp. Q3 2024 2024-05-14 C+
ERO Ero Copper Corp. Q1 2024 2024-05-10 A
WRBY Warby Parker Inc. Q1 2024 2024-05-09 A
AZEK The AZEK Company Inc. Q2 2024 2024-05-08 B+
SNCR Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-05-07 C+
TALO Talos Energy Inc. Q1 2024 2024-05-07 B+
LINC Lincoln Educational Services Corporation Q1 2024 2024-05-06 B+
PACK Ranpak Holdings Corp. Q1 2024 2024-05-04 B
AES The AES Corporation Q1 2024 2024-05-03 C+
PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation Q1 2024 2024-05-03 A
TRP TC Energy Corporation Q1 2024 2024-05-03 B
CW Curtiss-Wright Corporation Q1 2024 2024-05-02 B+
WEC WEC Energy Group, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-05-01 A
ROCK Gibraltar Industries, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-05-01 B+
LTRX Lantronix, Inc. Q3 2024 2024-04-29 C
TS Tenaris S.A. Q1 2024 2024-04-26 C
ASB Associated Banc-Corp Q1 2024 2024-04-25 A
LECO Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-04-25 B
E Eni S.p.A. Q1 2024 2024-04-24 B+
TFIN Triumph Financial, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-04-18 D
DUOT Duos Technologies Group, Inc. Q4 2023 2024-04-01 F
ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. Q4 2023 2024-03-21 C+
KOPN Kopin Corporation Q4 2023 2024-03-14 C+
GIII G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. Q4 2024 2024-03-14 C
HSAI Hesai Group Q4 2023 2024-03-12 D
PBR Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Q4 2023 2024-03-08 D
FRPH FRP Holdings, Inc. Q4 2023 2024-03-07 C+
PSFE Paysafe Limited Q4 2023 2024-03-07 C+
GTLB GitLab Inc. Q4 2024 2024-03-04 C+
ZLAB Zai Lab Limited Q4 2023 2024-02-28 C
MNKD MannKind Corporation Q4 2023 2024-02-27 C
NICE NICE Ltd. Q4 2023 2024-02-22 B+
PUMP ProPetro Holding Corp. Q4 2023 2024-02-21 C+
DXCM DexCom, Inc. Q4 2023 2024-02-08 B+
RAMP LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. Q3 2024 2024-02-08 B+
INTR Inter & Co, Inc. Q4 2023 2024-02-08 B+
SPH Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. Q1 2024 2024-02-08 B
HP Helmerich & Payne, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-01-30 C
PFE Pfizer Inc. Q4 2023 2024-01-30 F
EMKR EMCORE Corporation Q4 2023 2023-12-12 C+
CSPI CSP Inc. Q4 2023 2023-12-12 D
LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. Q3 2023 2023-12-07 B+
GEF Greif, Inc. Q4 2023 2023-12-07 C
BRBR BellRing Brands, Inc. Q4 2023 2023-11-21 B+
SONO Sonos, Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-15 C+
AWH Aspira Women's Health Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-13 D
AIRG Airgain, Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-09 F
EFXT Enerflex Ltd. Q3 2023 2023-11-09 C+
SWKH SWK Holdings Corporation Q3 2023 2023-11-09 B
LGO Largo Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-09 D
SCPH scPharmaceuticals Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-08 B
TBLA Taboola.com Ltd. Q3 2023 2023-11-08 B+
BMBL Bumble Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-07 F
QTRX Quanterix Corporation Q3 2023 2023-11-07 B
ENOV Enovis Corporation Q3 2023 2023-11-07 A
GMED Globus Medical, Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-07 B
GOLD Barrick Gold Corporation Q3 2023 2023-11-02 C
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated Q3 2023 2023-11-02 F
LANC Lancaster Colony Corporation Q1 2024 2023-11-02 B
OPAD Offerpad Solutions Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-01 C
RVLV Revolve Group, Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-01 C
TEL TE Connectivity Ltd. Q4 2023 2023-11-01 B
WEAV Weave Communications, Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-01 B+
MTCH Match Group, Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-01 B
MAC The Macerich Company Q3 2023 2023-10-31 D
STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. Q2 2024 2023-10-05 B+
MYTE MYT Netherlands Parent B.V. Q4 2023 2023-09-14 B
CTLP Cantaloupe, Inc. Q4 2023 2023-09-06 B+
OXM Oxford Industries, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-31 C
BZUN Baozun Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-28 D
DXLG Destination XL Group, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-24 D
KC Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited Q2 2023 2023-08-22 C
PINC Premier, Inc. Q4 2023 2023-08-22 F
CSAN Cosan S.A. Q2 2023 2023-08-15 D
NU Nu Holdings Ltd. Q2 2023 2023-08-15 B
PNNT PennantPark Investment Corporation Q3 2023 2023-08-10 B+
ZOM Zomedica Corp. Q2 2023 2023-08-10 C
LSF Laird Superfood, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-09 D
CLNE Clean Energy Fuels Corp. Q2 2023 2023-08-09 C+
APPS Digital Turbine, Inc. Q1 2024 2023-08-08 D
AKYA Akoya Biosciences, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-07 C+
PTLO Portillo's Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-05 B
SPT Sprout Social, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-04 B+
FOUR Shift4 Payments, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-03 B+
PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-03 F
ET Energy Transfer LP Q2 2023 2023-08-02 C+
CTO CTO Realty Growth, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-07-28 B
MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. Q2 2023 2023-07-28 B+
IMAX IMAX Corporation Q2 2023 2023-07-26 B+
NWE NorthWestern Corporation Q2 2023 2023-07-26 D
ZDGE Zedge, Inc. Q3 2023 2023-06-12 D
LUCD Lucid Diagnostics Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-16 C+
VLN Valens Semiconductor Ltd. Q1 2023 2023-05-13 C
SLF Sun Life Financial Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-12 B
ICD Independence Contract Drilling, Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-12 B+
GGR Gogoro Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-11 D
CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-11 C+
SU Suncor Energy Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-09 C+
TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-05-08 D
CARS Cars.com Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-06 B
KE Kimball Electronics, Inc. Q3 2023 2023-05-06 C+
KNTK Kinetik Holdings Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-06 B+
AKR Acadia Realty Trust Q4 2022 2023-05-06 B+
INGN Inogen, Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-05 F
FIGS FIGS, Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-05 B+
CYRX Cryoport, Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-05 C
BRX Brixmor Property Group Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-02 A
CADE Cadence Bank Q1 2023 2023-04-25 C+
ALIM Alimera Sciences, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-03-31 C+
TACT TransAct Technologies Incorporated Q4 2022 2023-03-08 A
DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-03-07 B
NCSM NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-03-07 A
M Macy's, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-03-02 D
NEWT Newtek Business Services' Q4 2022 2023-02-28 D
VRE Veris Residential, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-02-22 D
OEC Orion Engineered Carbons S.A. Q4 2022 2023-02-17 B+
BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-02-16 A
DLR Digital Realty Trust, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-02-16 C+
ESEA Euroseas Ltd. Q4 2022 2023-02-15 C+
CIM Chimera Investment Corporation Q4 2022 2023-02-15 D
ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation Q4 2022 2023-02-14 C+
HIW Highwoods Properties, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-02-08 B
FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust Q4 2022 2023-02-08 B+
CEIX CONSOL Energy Inc. Q4 2022 2023-02-07 B
CLFD Clearfield, Inc. Q1 2023 2023-02-02 C+
ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-01-31 C+
ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Q4 2022 2023-01-26 C+
ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-01-24 C
UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-01-18 B
SOL ReneSola Ltd Q3 2022 2022-12-01 C+
A Agilent Technologies, Inc. Q4 2022 2022-11-21 B+
CIG Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais Q3 2022 2022-11-16 C+
PKOH Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. Q3 2022 2022-11-13 B
BLZE Backblaze, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-11 D
FET Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-09 B
SIBN SI-BONE, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-07 C+
FLL Full House Resorts, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-07 B
HBB Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company Q3 2022 2022-11-05 C
MEC Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-05 B+
GOOS Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Q2 2023 2022-11-02 D
SYY Sysco Corporation Q1 2023 2022-11-01 C+
AWRE Aware, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-10-30 F
FSLR First Solar, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-10-28 C+
VSEC VSE Corporation Q3 2022 2022-10-28 B+
UMBF UMB Financial Corporation Q3 2022 2022-10-26 C+
WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. Q4 2022 2022-10-13 C
APOG Apogee Enterprises, Inc. Q2 2023 2022-09-20 A
SWBI Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Q1 2023 2022-09-08 C+
CURV Torrid Holdings Inc. Q2 2022 2022-09-07 D
YMM Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. Q2 2022 2022-08-25 C+
TMCI Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-08-13 B+
EXFY Expensify, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-08-12 D
RICK RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-08-10 A
EVGO EVgo, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-08-09 C+
UUUU Energy Fuels Inc. Q2 2022 2022-08-09 C
BGSF BGSF, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-08-07 B+
BBSI Barrett Business Services, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-08-06 A
TWO Two Harbors Investment Corp. Q2 2022 2022-08-04 C+
COLD Americold Realty Trust, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-08-04 D
HLNE Hamilton Lane Incorporated Q1 2023 2022-08-02 C+
DVN Devon Energy Corporation Q2 2022 2022-08-02 B+
ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corporation Q2 2022 2022-08-02 C+
CRK Comstock Resources, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-08-02 B+
SYM Symbotic Inc. Q3 2022 2022-08-01 B+
CIVB Civista Bancshares, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-07-31 B
PRG PROG Holdings, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-07-30 D
MHO M/I Homes, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-07-27 B
SHW The Sherwin-Williams Company Q2 2022 2022-07-27 D
OGI OrganiGram Holdings Inc. Q3 2022 2022-07-14 B+
REPX Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-05-15 A
FLYW Flywire Corporation Q1 2022 2022-05-14 B+
DCGO DocGo Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-14 C
UGRO urban-gro, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-13 D
ZVIA Zevia PBC Q1 2022 2022-05-12 B
VNRX VolitionRx Limited Q1 2022 2022-05-12 F
XMTR Xometry, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-11 B+
OPK OPKO Health, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-09 D
NSIT Insight Enterprises, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-08 A
CAH Cardinal Health, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-05-05 F
MGNI Magnite, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-04 D
KAR KAR Auction Services, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-04 C+
BXP Boston Properties, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-03 A
FLGT Fulgent Genetics, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-03 B
ABNB Airbnb, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-03 B+
SILC Silicom Ltd. Q1 2022 2022-04-30 B+
STC Stewart Information Services Corporation Q1 2022 2022-04-29 C+
ADSE ADS-TEC Energy PLC Q4 2021 2022-04-28 D
BSX Boston Scientific Corporation Q1 2022 2022-04-27 B
RGEN Repligen Corporation Q1 2022 2022-04-27 C+
CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-04-26 C+
FLXS Flexsteel Industries, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-04-26 B
FR First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-04-21 A
WOR Worthington Industries, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-03-23 B
FAT FAT Brands Inc. Q4 2021 2022-03-21 F

How the model reasoned

DV · Q3 2021 → YESThe question is: Does management point to SPECIFIC, IDENTIFIED sources of additional business that are ALREADY SECURED OR ALREADY IN MOTION but have contributed LITTLE OR NOTHING to the results just r...NO The OpenSlate acquisition is described as not yet closed, so it is contingent on a future event (closing) and management explicitly states it will not have a material impact on 2021 results. The TikTok partnership is presented as a recent launch that has already begun contributing to coverage, not as a future 2022 ramp. The new Q3 logo wins are noted as positioning for growth into 2022, but they are not tied to any specific, named contributors with quantified near-term ramps; they are framed as general enterprise momentum rather than concrete, identifiable sources already in motion. Meetrics is called out as immaterial.
GMED · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management point to SPECIFIC, IDENTIFIED sources of additional business that are ALREADY SECURED OR ALREADY IN MOTION but have contributed LITTLE OR NOTHING to the results just r...YES The transcript shows management identifying specific, already-secured contributors: the NuVasive merger (closed September 1, only one month in Q3), cross-selling of existing portfolios (investments made earlier this year, poised to begin as early as next quarter), and a record year of product launches (nine products 2024, more by year-end, including E-hub Navigation and expansions to expandable portfolio). These are described as real, nameable items already in motion or recently closed, with meaningful ramps expected in the coming quarters, so the reported results understate the business in place.
LKQ · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management point to SPECIFIC, IDENTIFIED sources of additional business that are ALREADY SECURED OR ALREADY IN MOTION but have contributed LITTLE OR NOTHING to the results just r...NO The T2 project qualifies as a specific, in-motion contributor with near-term ramp (deliveries Q3 2017, full live Q1 2018), but the transcript does not tie it explicitly to “additional business” or “incremental revenue” beyond the project’s own costs and accretion. The 2017 incremental costs are noted, yet the forward impact is framed as project-specific rather than a broad source of new secured business. Andrew Page remains contingent on CMA approval, and other items (new branches, Mekonomen) are either already contributing or not framed as additional secured sources.

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.