Insiders still discovering the upside: management reports the opportunity keeps revealing itself bigger in live operatio
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that it is still discovering new upside inside a business that is already working, with genuine positive surprises from live operation, and is responding with real attention/resources. Let's examine the transcript for evidence. Key points from management (Gleb and Frank): - B2 Cloud Storage grew 48%, now 40% of revenue. - Developers: nine of top-20 accounts are developers, data stored by developers grew 80% year-over-year. - Partnerships: channel partners, B2 Reserve, MSP360, Elements, etc. - B2 Reserve: "only in its first full quarter of availability and still relatively small, we are pleased to see B2 Reserve show a nice initial ramp in demand with revenue increasing each month of Q3." This suggests a new offering that is ramping, but is it a discovery? It's a new product, but they launched it, so it's not a surprise that it's working? They say "nice initial ramp" - that's positive but not necessarily a discovery of upside beyond expectations. They might have expected it. - They mention "we were not for example seeing as much benefit to-date, as we expected from our growth initiatives." That's a negative surprise, not positive. - They talk about macro challenges, and they are tempering expectations for 2023 revenue to ~$100M, which is lower than prior expectations? Actually they say "we believe the top line revenue forecast of approximately $100 million for 2023 is appropriate." That's a guidance, not a discovery. - They mention "we continue to make significant progress in expanding our partner program." But that's not a discovery of new upside; it's just progress. - They mention "we were very pleased that just last week Backblaze was named to Inc.’s Business Media for the inaugural Power Partner list" - that's an award, not a discovery. - They mention "we have started a major push to succeed with channel partners" - that's a strategy, not a discovery. - They mention "Channel partners have shown enthusiasm for our new platform offering B2 Reserve" - that's positive but again, it's a new product they launched, so enthusiasm is expected? Not necessarily a surprise. - They mention "we also recently attended NAB, New York in October and we're pleased to see continued growth in mind share and interest from companies in this industry." That's a positive but not a discovery of new upside.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | WEC Energy Group, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-01 | A |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| ET | Energy Transfer LP | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-02 | C+ |
| IMAX | IMAX Corporation | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-26 | B+ |
| MEC | Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-05 | B+ |
| MOMO | Hello Group Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | D |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LOPE | Grand Canyon Education, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-08 | C |
| EMR | Emerson Electric Co. | Q3 2021 | 2021-08-04 | B+ |
| TENB | Tenable Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-27 | A |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-27 | C |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-25 | C+ |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-06 | C |
| BCE | BCE Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-05 | B+ |
| BP | BP p.l.c. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-07 | B+ |
| INGR | Ingredion Incorporated | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-01 | B+ |
BP · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that it is STILL DISCOVERING NEW UPSIDE INSIDE BUSINESS THAT IS ALREADY WORKING — both discovering new positive surprises from operations AND responding with re...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this posture in the Oman section. They recount a genuine operational surprise—“straight wells that we had not expected,” well rates “above plan,” and liquid production “higher than planned”—that emerged while the asset was actually running.
XOM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that it is STILL DISCOVERING NEW UPSIDE INSIDE BUSINESS THAT IS ALREADY WORKING — that in the course of actually operating, selling, or delivering in the recent...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this posture in the Guyana section. Neil Chapman recounts fresh upward revisions to resource estimates ("now more than 4 billion... up from the 3.2 billion... just 4 months ago") and the eighth discovery ("Longtail exploration well...
LOPE · Q2 2021 → YESThe question is whether management is still discovering new upside inside a business that's already working, based on recent operations, and responding with attention or resources. YES The transcript shows management discovering fresh upside in the GCU traditional campus platform through live operations: they built three new residence halls expecting no further need next year, but current registrations reveal near-capacity demand, requiring at least two more halls to be built.