Insiders still discovering the upside: management reports the opportunity keeps revealing itself bigger in live operatio
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that it is still discovering new upside inside business that is already working, and responding with real attention/resources. Look for fresh discoveries from live operation, and management following them. Transcript: Mike Slessor discusses record results, supply chain challenges, but also mentions "we continue to benefit from solid demand across all our served markets" and "we're excited about the important role we're playing in enabling innovation and growth." He mentions "we were recently recognized by Newsweek for our ESG leadership" - not relevant. He talks about "we began customer shipments from our new Livermore Manufacturing Center in the fourth quarter, and these shipments contributed to our record quarterly revenue." That's a capacity expansion, not a discovery. He discusses Foundry and Logic: "our foundry business is being driven by this second component, the release of new designs on existing nodes, as we enable reuse of our customers installed base of testers to test new chip designs, primarily in high performance compute applications." That's a known driver. He mentions "customers are investing in both leading edge capacity... and early stage innovative advanced packaging architectures like EMIB, Foveros, and 3DFabric to help offset the slowing of front-end driven Moore's law. As we've discussed in the past, these chiplet or tile-based integration schemes drive both higher test intensity... and test complexity... Together, both these dynamics create tailwinds for long-term foundry and logic probe card demand." That's a known trend, not a fresh discovery. He mentions "we recently launched an exciting new program to offer HPD state-of-the-art cryogenic test tools and capabilities as a service, enabling quantum computing developers to rapidly and cost-effectively characterize their cubits and resonators." That's a new program, but is it a discovery from live operation? It's a launch, not a surprise from operation. He says "we're well along the path to achieve the target financial model that delivers $2 of non-GAAP earnings per share on $850 million of revenue." That's a target. Shai Shahar discusses financials. No mention of discoveries.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | WEC Energy Group, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-01 | A |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| ET | Energy Transfer LP | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-02 | C+ |
| IMAX | IMAX Corporation | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-26 | B+ |
| MEC | Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-05 | B+ |
| MOMO | Hello Group Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | D |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LOPE | Grand Canyon Education, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-08 | C |
| EMR | Emerson Electric Co. | Q3 2021 | 2021-08-04 | B+ |
| TENB | Tenable Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-27 | A |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-27 | C |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-25 | C+ |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-06 | C |
| BCE | BCE Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-05 | B+ |
| BP | BP p.l.c. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-07 | B+ |
| INGR | Ingredion Incorporated | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-01 | B+ |
BP · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that it is STILL DISCOVERING NEW UPSIDE INSIDE BUSINESS THAT IS ALREADY WORKING — both discovering new positive surprises from operations AND responding with re...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this posture in the Oman section. They recount a genuine operational surprise—“straight wells that we had not expected,” well rates “above plan,” and liquid production “higher than planned”—that emerged while the asset was actually running.
XOM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that it is STILL DISCOVERING NEW UPSIDE INSIDE BUSINESS THAT IS ALREADY WORKING — that in the course of actually operating, selling, or delivering in the recent...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this posture in the Guyana section. Neil Chapman recounts fresh upward revisions to resource estimates ("now more than 4 billion... up from the 3.2 billion... just 4 months ago") and the eighth discovery ("Longtail exploration well...
LOPE · Q2 2021 → YESThe question is whether management is still discovering new upside inside a business that's already working, based on recent operations, and responding with attention or resources. YES The transcript shows management discovering fresh upside in the GCU traditional campus platform through live operations: they built three new residence halls expecting no further need next year, but current registrations reveal near-capacity demand, requiring at least two more halls to be built.