Insiders still discovering the upside: management reports the opportunity keeps revealing itself bigger in live operatio
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys both: (1) fresh discoveries coming out of live operation, and (2) management following those discoveries with real attention/resources. Let's scan the transcript for any such language. Chip Mahan mentions tech update, Apiture, etc. He talks about hurricane, but that's not positive discovery. He mentions "we are making a comeback" after hurricane, but that's recovery. Huntley Garriott talks about observations: "It's an incredibly talented group of folks with a real culture of innovation and the proven ability to leverage technology." That's general. He mentions "we'll continue to build out new industry verticals where we see opportunities, and continue to augment that team with the best general small business lenders in the country. The folks that we've brought on board already are world class and have meaningful pipelines that will help drive originations in 2019 and beyond." That's about hiring and pipelines, not fresh discoveries from operation. He mentions "we've also continued to develop our deposit platform as well as launched a wealth management offering" - that's just stating. He talks about "we have and will continue to reduce our reliance on gain on sale using our balance sheet more to retain loans and increasing recurring revenues." That's strategy. He mentions "we continue to be pleased with the efficiency of our deposit platform." That's a positive but not a discovery. He says "In the quarter we did originate nearly 3,500 new accounts, bringing our total deposit accounts to more than 30,000, which is more than double the level from a year ago with minimal additional resources added." That's a performance metric, but is it a discovery? It's just reporting growth. Not necessarily a surprise. He talks about "we really believe that the market is under-pricing these assets right now" - that's about market, not internal discovery. He says "you should expect to see us sell less loans into this market and retain more on our balance sheet." That's a response to market conditions, not a discovery. He mentions "we have both the capital and the funding to manage this shift" - that's capability. He says "we're clearly in a competitive part of the lending cycle" - that's negative. He says "we have the best small business banking platform in the nation" - that's a claim.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | WEC Energy Group, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-01 | A |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| ET | Energy Transfer LP | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-02 | C+ |
| IMAX | IMAX Corporation | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-26 | B+ |
| MEC | Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-05 | B+ |
| MOMO | Hello Group Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | D |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LOPE | Grand Canyon Education, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-08 | C |
| EMR | Emerson Electric Co. | Q3 2021 | 2021-08-04 | B+ |
| TENB | Tenable Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-27 | A |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-27 | C |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-25 | C+ |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-06 | C |
| BCE | BCE Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-05 | B+ |
| BP | BP p.l.c. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-07 | B+ |
| INGR | Ingredion Incorporated | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-01 | B+ |
BP · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that it is STILL DISCOVERING NEW UPSIDE INSIDE BUSINESS THAT IS ALREADY WORKING — both discovering new positive surprises from operations AND responding with re...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this posture in the Oman section. They recount a genuine operational surprise—“straight wells that we had not expected,” well rates “above plan,” and liquid production “higher than planned”—that emerged while the asset was actually running.
XOM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that it is STILL DISCOVERING NEW UPSIDE INSIDE BUSINESS THAT IS ALREADY WORKING — that in the course of actually operating, selling, or delivering in the recent...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this posture in the Guyana section. Neil Chapman recounts fresh upward revisions to resource estimates ("now more than 4 billion... up from the 3.2 billion... just 4 months ago") and the eighth discovery ("Longtail exploration well...
LOPE · Q2 2021 → YESThe question is whether management is still discovering new upside inside a business that's already working, based on recent operations, and responding with attention or resources. YES The transcript shows management discovering fresh upside in the GCU traditional campus platform through live operations: they built three new residence halls expecting no further need next year, but current registrations reveal near-capacity demand, requiring at least two more halls to be built.