Insiders still discovering the upside: management reports the opportunity keeps revealing itself bigger in live operatio
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that it is still discovering new upside inside the business that is already working, and if management is responding to those discoveries with real attention or resources now. Key elements: (1) Fresh discoveries coming out of live operation - favorable learnings about scope of opportunity from actual current activity, not projections. (2) Management following the discoveries with real attention/resources. Look for management's own words. The transcript has management speaking: Sergio Marchionne, Alessandro Gili, Nicoletta Russo. Search for statements about discoveries, surprises, upside, etc. One notable part: Sergio Marchionne says about the 5-year plan: "I think it’s no use me threatening you with numbers. I must prefer to see you, to see you and then talk to you about the portfolio development and what I think we can do. Obviously, we’re satisfied with where we have taken the business so far. I think we need to, we need to take a very hard look at this to see what more we can get out of the system given the relative success that we've had with even this volume of 8,400 vehicles for the year." That suggests they are looking for more upside, but not necessarily a fresh discovery from live operation. Another part: On pricing, Marchionne says: "I think one of the most disturbing things about these presentations is having to deal with this understanding about the foreign exchange hedges and how it reconciles from one period to another. The thing that is much more structural of a Ferrari is the annuity nature of its earnings in Euro. I think we need to protect that basis. I think we need to be unimpacted by foreign exchange fluctuations. And I think the big task that we have here, together with our commercial organization is to drive their pricing mechanism to the field. And we intend to do that hopefully within the next six months." That is about pricing strategy, not a discovery. On the utility vehicle: Marchionne says "the board has now seen it, And we have run it through customers. I think the reception has been quite good. It’s early days I think it needs to be refined further. We’ll continue to do more, more work on this.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | WEC Energy Group, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-01 | A |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| ET | Energy Transfer LP | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-02 | C+ |
| IMAX | IMAX Corporation | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-26 | B+ |
| MEC | Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-05 | B+ |
| MOMO | Hello Group Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | D |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LOPE | Grand Canyon Education, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-08 | C |
| EMR | Emerson Electric Co. | Q3 2021 | 2021-08-04 | B+ |
| TENB | Tenable Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-27 | A |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-27 | C |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-25 | C+ |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-06 | C |
| BCE | BCE Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-05 | B+ |
| BP | BP p.l.c. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-07 | B+ |
| INGR | Ingredion Incorporated | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-01 | B+ |
BP · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that it is STILL DISCOVERING NEW UPSIDE INSIDE BUSINESS THAT IS ALREADY WORKING — both discovering new positive surprises from operations AND responding with re...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this posture in the Oman section. They recount a genuine operational surprise—“straight wells that we had not expected,” well rates “above plan,” and liquid production “higher than planned”—that emerged while the asset was actually running.
XOM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that it is STILL DISCOVERING NEW UPSIDE INSIDE BUSINESS THAT IS ALREADY WORKING — that in the course of actually operating, selling, or delivering in the recent...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this posture in the Guyana section. Neil Chapman recounts fresh upward revisions to resource estimates ("now more than 4 billion... up from the 3.2 billion... just 4 months ago") and the eighth discovery ("Longtail exploration well...
LOPE · Q2 2021 → YESThe question is whether management is still discovering new upside inside a business that's already working, based on recent operations, and responding with attention or resources. YES The transcript shows management discovering fresh upside in the GCU traditional campus platform through live operations: they built three new residence halls expecting no further need next year, but current registrations reveal near-capacity demand, requiring at least two more halls to be built.