Insiders still discovering the upside: management reports the opportunity keeps revealing itself bigger in live operatio
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys both halves: (1) fresh discoveries from live operation, and (2) management following with attention/resources. The transcript: management discusses results, challenges, but also some positive surprises? Let's scan. Roger: "we were pleased with the strong results from our natural gas businesses largely driven by increased margin from capacity management and commodity marketing, as well as higher disc margin." That's not a discovery. Later: "At UGI International, our LPG business has shown tremendous resiliency... robust underlying demand despite warmer weather." Not a discovery. "Turning to our renewables... we made progress in expanding our renewables footprint with a commitment to fully fund three projects converting dairy waste to RNG in South Dakota. These projects are expected to produce approximately 300 million cubic feet annually when completed by the end of calendar 2024. Our previously announced RNG projects are also on track with two projects expected to be completed and operational in this fiscal year." That's forward-looking, not a discovery from live operation. "Mountaineer Gas Company continues to meet our expectations and we’re pleased with the record year-to-date performance from the business. Demand for natural gas within our region remains strong and we have been pleased with the incremental earnings from UGI Moraine East, the legal entity holding the Stonehenge assets acquired in January of this year." That's just performance. Ted: "At the global LPG businesses, there was continued focus on margin management and expense control actions which partially offset net volume loss... Our natural gas businesses reported higher earnings largely due to an increase in disc margins at utilities, driven primarily by record deployment of replacement and betterment capital. In addition, utilities continued to see solid customer growth with year-to-date customer additions exceeding the levels we saw during the same period last year." That's good results but not a discovery. Later: "Capacity management margins were largely impacted by the settlement timing of certain multi-year hedge contracts for stored volume, which is expected to reverse when the gas is extracted from storage during the upcoming winter." That's a timing thing. No mention of discovering new upside from live operation.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | WEC Energy Group, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-01 | A |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| ET | Energy Transfer LP | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-02 | C+ |
| IMAX | IMAX Corporation | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-26 | B+ |
| MEC | Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-05 | B+ |
| MOMO | Hello Group Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | D |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LOPE | Grand Canyon Education, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-08 | C |
| EMR | Emerson Electric Co. | Q3 2021 | 2021-08-04 | B+ |
| TENB | Tenable Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-27 | A |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-27 | C |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-25 | C+ |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-06 | C |
| BCE | BCE Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-05 | B+ |
| BP | BP p.l.c. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-07 | B+ |
| INGR | Ingredion Incorporated | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-01 | B+ |
BP · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that it is STILL DISCOVERING NEW UPSIDE INSIDE BUSINESS THAT IS ALREADY WORKING — both discovering new positive surprises from operations AND responding with re...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this posture in the Oman section. They recount a genuine operational surprise—“straight wells that we had not expected,” well rates “above plan,” and liquid production “higher than planned”—that emerged while the asset was actually running.
XOM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that it is STILL DISCOVERING NEW UPSIDE INSIDE BUSINESS THAT IS ALREADY WORKING — that in the course of actually operating, selling, or delivering in the recent...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this posture in the Guyana section. Neil Chapman recounts fresh upward revisions to resource estimates ("now more than 4 billion... up from the 3.2 billion... just 4 months ago") and the eighth discovery ("Longtail exploration well...
LOPE · Q2 2021 → YESThe question is whether management is still discovering new upside inside a business that's already working, based on recent operations, and responding with attention or resources. YES The transcript shows management discovering fresh upside in the GCU traditional campus platform through live operations: they built three new residence halls expecting no further need next year, but current registrations reveal near-capacity demand, requiring at least two more halls to be built.