Mid-period crossings: the quarter's story is things that started during it and are still completing
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if the transcript shows both halves: (1) real starts narrated as starts during/around the period, and (2) incomplete climb with printed numbers lagging. Looking at the transcript, management discusses several projects. Key ones: Pueblo Viejo expansion, RekoDiq, Lumwana, Porgera, etc. But we need to see if any of these actually began during the period and are transacting, with management saying the climb is incomplete. The most relevant is Pueblo Viejo expansion. Management says: "the slower ramp up of the expansion of Pueblo Viejo" impacting guidance. They talk about equipment failures, temporary fixes, and that they expect production to be above 800,000 ounces in 2024. But is this a "start" that began during the period? The expansion is ongoing, but it's not a new start; it's a ramp-up of an existing project. They mention "the slower ramp up" and "the ramp up, albeit at a slower pace." So it's a ramp-up, not a start. The expansion was already underway. The period's numbers are lower due to delays, but the activity is not a new start. Other projects: RekoDiq is still in feasibility study, construction starts 2025. Not started. Lumwana expansion similar. Porgera reopening: "granting of a new special mining license" and "execution of the mining development contract" but "engaging with landowners to extend compensation agreements to enable restart before the end of the year." So restart is not yet happened. Not started. What about other things? They mention "the successful commissioning of the third shaft" at Turquoise Ridge. That is a start? Commissioning of a shaft is a start of a new capacity. But is it central? They say "helped by the successful commissioning of the third shaft." That is a real start. But is the climb incomplete? They say production increased by 14% against same period 2022. But they don't explicitly say the shaft is still ramping up and that reported numbers lag. They just mention it as a help. Not enough. Also "Phase 2 of its solar farm scheduled for completion before the end of this year" at Loulo-Gounkoto. That's not started yet. "Kibali's 16-megawatt solar facility with battery storage" - "once commissioned" - not yet. "Veladero" - they cut back mine plan, but now "set to achieve above top end of guidance" - that's just performance. "Jabal Sayid" - consistent production.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIN | Albany International Corp. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-07 | B |
| AFL | Aflac Incorporated | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-02 | C+ |
| CARS | Cars.com Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-06 | B |
| HLX | Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B+ |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2018-02-06 | A |
| ANIP | ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-03-02 | B+ |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-03 | C+ |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
AFL · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management's account of the just-reported period is built around real business activity that started partway through the period, and that the numbers average before and a...YES The transcript shows management's account centered on the Japan Post cancer insurance launch in early April, which began selling the product and drove a 60% sales increase as a major contributor. They describe the activity as real and transacting, with Dan Amos noting the significant contribution from the new product. Yoshizumi confirms gradual increase going forward, and Fred highlights runway for more agents and sales calming down after initial jump, indicating the Q2 numbers reflect partial ramp-up rather than full run-rate.
ESE · Q2 2016 → YESThe question is about whether management's account of the just-reported period is built around real business activity that started partway through the period, and that the numbers average before and a...YES The transcript shows management's account centered on the real mid-period start of Plastique's contribution (acquired partway through Q2, with two months of performance noted and "early performance consistent with our acquisition forecast"), treated as a key new segment. It also explicitly addresses the incomplete climb, noting that the reported Q 2 numbers lag due to partial contribution and that Q3/Q4 will see fuller periods plus seasonality, with the business already running at a higher level as the ramp continues.
PSX · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is about whether management's account of the just-reported period is built substantially around real business activity that crossed from not-happening to happening partway through the per...YES The transcript shows management centering the Q4 story on the Freeport LPG Export Terminal's real start: commissioning completed smoothly, first commercial cargo shipped mid-December (partial Q4 contribution), with full-quarter costs incurred but only partial revenue, and explicit ramp to near-capacity loading in January onward.