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Mid-period crossings

Mid-period crossings: the quarter's story is things that started during it and are still completing

Calls Tested
491
Answered YES
8
Hit Rate
1.6%
rare by design

Independent Bank Group, Inc. (IBTX) — this company's answers

NO on the Q3 2017 call 2017-10-24 A
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NOWe need to answer YES or NO based on the transcript. The question asks: On this call, is management's account of the just-reported period built substantially around REAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY THAT CROSSED FROM NOT-HAPPENING TO HAPPENING PARTWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD OR JUST AROUND ITS EDGES — and does management make clear that this newly started activity is still completing its climb, so the period's reported numbers averaged the 'before' and 'after' and therefore sit below the level at which the business is already running? We need to check if management describes concrete business that began during or around the period, and that the climb is incomplete, with reported numbers lagging. Looking at the transcript: David Brooks mentions "we completed the core system conversion for Carlile acquisition as well as the sale of nine Colorado branches." That's a conversion, not revenue-generating activity. He also mentions hiring new lenders, but that's not revenue yet. He talks about loan growth impacted by Hurricane Harvey, but that's a disruption, not a start. Michelle Hickox mentions "we’ve recovered $458,000 of non-accrual interest during the quarter" - that's a recovery, not a start. She also mentions "increased service charge income, mortgage income and increased earnings on BOLI policies, primarily driven by the Carlile acquisition." But that's from an acquisition that closed earlier (April 1), not a start in this period. Dan Brooks talks about loan growth, but that's ongoing. He mentions "we’ve been successful at selling some of the other real estate acquired in the Carlile deal." That's a sale, not a start. The question specifically asks about "REAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY THAT CROSSED FROM NOT-HAPPENING TO HAPPENING PARTWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD OR JUST AROUND ITS EDGES". The only thing that seems to have started is the core system conversion and branch sale, but those are operational changes, not revenue-generating activities. Also, the conversion was completed in October, after the quarter ended. The branch sale was also in October. So those are just around the edges, but they are not described as starting revenue-generating activity. Management does not describe any new product, service, facility, or contract that began during the quarter and is ramping up. They talk about hiring lenders, but that's future.

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, is management's account of the just-reported period built substantially around REAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY THAT CROSSED FROM NOT-HAPPENING TO HAPPENING PARTWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD OR JUST AROUND ITS EDGES — and does management make clear that this newly started activity is still completing its climb, so the period's reported numbers averaged the 'before' and 'after' and therefore sit below the level at which the business is already running? Answer YES when management's own words convey, in whatever form fits the business, BOTH halves of this one phenomenon: (1) THE PERIOD CONTAINED REAL STARTS, NARRATED AS STARTS. Management describes one or more concrete pieces of business that genuinely BEGAN during or immediately around the reported period — described in the language of crossing over: began shipping, started production, went live, opened, launched and is now selling, first deliveries made, commenced operations, customer started ordering, came online, started generating revenue. The started thing may take whatever form fits the industry — a contract or program whose deliveries began mid-period; a facility, line, location, or capacity that entered service; a product or offering that began transacting; a customer, market, or channel that went live; an acquisition or capability that started contributing — and one substantial start or several smaller ones both count. What matters is that the activity is REAL AND ALREADY TRANSACTING (actual revenue, orders being filled, output, customers being served — not a plan, a signing with nothing yet performed, a pilot without paying activity, or a launch still ahead), and that management treats these starts as central to the period's story rather than as passing mentions. (2) THE CLIMB IS INCOMPLETE AND THE PRINTED NUMBERS LAG IT. Management conveys, directly or plainly in substance, that because the activity started partway through, the reported results captured only a partial slice of it — and that the business is exiting the period at a higher level than the period's figures show, with the remaining climb a matter of the already-started activity continuing and filling out (further months of what began, the ramp reaching its intended level, utilization building, subsequent deliveries already scheduled or flowing) rather than a matter of winning demand not yet in hand. Management should treat the fuller contribution as meaningful to the company's trajectory relative to its current size. Answer NO if the call describes an established business simply performing well or poorly in its usual rhythm, with nothing meaningful that newly began in or around the period. NO if the new items are still plans, signings without performance, pilots without paying activity, or launches that have not yet occurred. NO if the started activity is trivial or routine for this company — the ordinary cadence of openings, orders, or launches this business always has — with no sense that it changes the company's level of business. NO if the fuller contribution depends chiefly on market recovery, hoped-for demand, approvals, financing, or decisions not yet made. NO if the newly started activity is already fully reflected in the reported results with no meaningful remaining climb. NO if management is chiefly explaining delays, false starts, or problems with things that were supposed to begin. NO if the mid-period timing and remaining climb appear only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself affirm. Use only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
AIN Albany International Corp. Q3 2023 2023-11-07 B
AFL Aflac Incorporated Q2 2023 2023-08-02 C+
CARS Cars.com Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-06 B
HLX Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. Q1 2018 2018-04-24 B+
SBSI Southside Bancshares, Inc. Q4 2017 2018-02-06 A
ANIP ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Q4 2016 2017-03-02 B+
PSX Phillips 66 Q4 2016 2017-02-03 C+
ESE ESCO Technologies Inc. Q2 2016 2016-05-03 A

How the model reasoned

AFL · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management's account of the just-reported period is built around real business activity that started partway through the period, and that the numbers average before and a...YES The transcript shows management's account centered on the Japan Post cancer insurance launch in early April, which began selling the product and drove a 60% sales increase as a major contributor. They describe the activity as real and transacting, with Dan Amos noting the significant contribution from the new product. Yoshizumi confirms gradual increase going forward, and Fred highlights runway for more agents and sales calming down after initial jump, indicating the Q2 numbers reflect partial ramp-up rather than full run-rate.
ESE · Q2 2016 → YESThe question is about whether management's account of the just-reported period is built around real business activity that started partway through the period, and that the numbers average before and a...YES The transcript shows management's account centered on the real mid-period start of Plastique's contribution (acquired partway through Q2, with two months of performance noted and "early performance consistent with our acquisition forecast"), treated as a key new segment. It also explicitly addresses the incomplete climb, noting that the reported Q 2 numbers lag due to partial contribution and that Q3/Q4 will see fuller periods plus seasonality, with the business already running at a higher level as the ramp continues.
PSX · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is about whether management's account of the just-reported period is built substantially around real business activity that crossed from not-happening to happening partway through the per...YES The transcript shows management centering the Q4 story on the Freeport LPG Export Terminal's real start: commissioning completed smoothly, first commercial cargo shipped mid-December (partial Q4 contribution), with full-quarter costs incurred but only partial revenue, and explicit ramp to near-capacity loading in January onward.

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.