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Mid-period crossings

Mid-period crossings: the quarter's story is things that started during it and are still completing

Calls Tested
491
Answered YES
8
Hit Rate
1.6%
rare by design

OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) — this company's answers

NO on the Q3 2018 call 2018-11-08 A
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2018 call → NO我们根据提供的财报电话会议记录,判断管理层的描述是否围绕“在报告期内或临近报告期开始的实际业务活动”,并且管理层是否明确表示该活动仍在爬坡,报告数字低于当前业务水平。 关键点: - 报告期是2018年第三季度。 - 管理层提到了多个项目:Mustang Energy Centers(2018年初开始运行,但已运行一段时间)、Windspeed II输电线路、Covington太阳能农场(已投入服务)、Soonerscrubber项目(Unit 1已调试,Unit 2计划下月完成)、RFP容量需求(168MW和305MW,但尚未批准)、Arkansas Formula Rate计划(已提交费率申请)、Enable的Velocity收购和Gulf Run管道(宣布开发,但尚未运营)。 - 具体看“开始”的活动:Soonerscrubber Unit 1已调试(commissioned),Unit 2计划下月完成。但这是项目完成,不是新业务开始。Mustang Energy Centers在2018年初开始运行,但第三季度是持续运行,不是新开始。 - 管理层提到“我们完成了并投入服务了Windspeed II输电线路、Covington太阳能农场”,这些是完成并投入服务,但可能是在第三季度或之前?没有明确说在第三季度内开始。 - 关于RFP,是发布需求,尚未有结果。 - 关于Enable,提到“record volumes”,但那是持续运营,不是新开始。 - 管理层没有明确说某个具体业务在第三季度内“开始”并产生收入,且爬坡未完成。他们提到“Mustang Energy Centers have approximately 1,800 starts across the seven units since inception earlier this year”,但那是年初开始的,不是本季度。 - 关于Soonerscrubber,Unit 1已调试,Unit 2下月完成,但这是资本项目,不是新业务活动。 - 管理层没有提到任何“开始”的活动导致报告期数字低于当前水平。他们提到“placing these major projects into service creates the lumpiness in earnings”,但那是关于折旧和AFUDC,不是新业务爬坡。 - 整体上,管理层描述的是持续运营和项目完成,没有明确的新业务在报告期内开始并爬坡。 因此,答案应为NO。

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, is management's account of the just-reported period built substantially around REAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY THAT CROSSED FROM NOT-HAPPENING TO HAPPENING PARTWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD OR JUST AROUND ITS EDGES — and does management make clear that this newly started activity is still completing its climb, so the period's reported numbers averaged the 'before' and 'after' and therefore sit below the level at which the business is already running? Answer YES when management's own words convey, in whatever form fits the business, BOTH halves of this one phenomenon: (1) THE PERIOD CONTAINED REAL STARTS, NARRATED AS STARTS. Management describes one or more concrete pieces of business that genuinely BEGAN during or immediately around the reported period — described in the language of crossing over: began shipping, started production, went live, opened, launched and is now selling, first deliveries made, commenced operations, customer started ordering, came online, started generating revenue. The started thing may take whatever form fits the industry — a contract or program whose deliveries began mid-period; a facility, line, location, or capacity that entered service; a product or offering that began transacting; a customer, market, or channel that went live; an acquisition or capability that started contributing — and one substantial start or several smaller ones both count. What matters is that the activity is REAL AND ALREADY TRANSACTING (actual revenue, orders being filled, output, customers being served — not a plan, a signing with nothing yet performed, a pilot without paying activity, or a launch still ahead), and that management treats these starts as central to the period's story rather than as passing mentions. (2) THE CLIMB IS INCOMPLETE AND THE PRINTED NUMBERS LAG IT. Management conveys, directly or plainly in substance, that because the activity started partway through, the reported results captured only a partial slice of it — and that the business is exiting the period at a higher level than the period's figures show, with the remaining climb a matter of the already-started activity continuing and filling out (further months of what began, the ramp reaching its intended level, utilization building, subsequent deliveries already scheduled or flowing) rather than a matter of winning demand not yet in hand. Management should treat the fuller contribution as meaningful to the company's trajectory relative to its current size. Answer NO if the call describes an established business simply performing well or poorly in its usual rhythm, with nothing meaningful that newly began in or around the period. NO if the new items are still plans, signings without performance, pilots without paying activity, or launches that have not yet occurred. NO if the started activity is trivial or routine for this company — the ordinary cadence of openings, orders, or launches this business always has — with no sense that it changes the company's level of business. NO if the fuller contribution depends chiefly on market recovery, hoped-for demand, approvals, financing, or decisions not yet made. NO if the newly started activity is already fully reflected in the reported results with no meaningful remaining climb. NO if management is chiefly explaining delays, false starts, or problems with things that were supposed to begin. NO if the mid-period timing and remaining climb appear only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself affirm. Use only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
AIN Albany International Corp. Q3 2023 2023-11-07 B
AFL Aflac Incorporated Q2 2023 2023-08-02 C+
CARS Cars.com Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-06 B
HLX Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. Q1 2018 2018-04-24 B+
SBSI Southside Bancshares, Inc. Q4 2017 2018-02-06 A
ANIP ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Q4 2016 2017-03-02 B+
PSX Phillips 66 Q4 2016 2017-02-03 C+
ESE ESCO Technologies Inc. Q2 2016 2016-05-03 A

How the model reasoned

AFL · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management's account of the just-reported period is built around real business activity that started partway through the period, and that the numbers average before and a...YES The transcript shows management's account centered on the Japan Post cancer insurance launch in early April, which began selling the product and drove a 60% sales increase as a major contributor. They describe the activity as real and transacting, with Dan Amos noting the significant contribution from the new product. Yoshizumi confirms gradual increase going forward, and Fred highlights runway for more agents and sales calming down after initial jump, indicating the Q2 numbers reflect partial ramp-up rather than full run-rate.
ESE · Q2 2016 → YESThe question is about whether management's account of the just-reported period is built around real business activity that started partway through the period, and that the numbers average before and a...YES The transcript shows management's account centered on the real mid-period start of Plastique's contribution (acquired partway through Q2, with two months of performance noted and "early performance consistent with our acquisition forecast"), treated as a key new segment. It also explicitly addresses the incomplete climb, noting that the reported Q 2 numbers lag due to partial contribution and that Q3/Q4 will see fuller periods plus seasonality, with the business already running at a higher level as the ramp continues.
PSX · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is about whether management's account of the just-reported period is built substantially around real business activity that crossed from not-happening to happening partway through the per...YES The transcript shows management centering the Q4 story on the Freeport LPG Export Terminal's real start: commissioning completed smoothly, first commercial cargo shipped mid-December (partial Q4 contribution), with full-quarter costs incurred but only partial revenue, and explicit ramp to near-capacity loading in January onward.

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