New business is being written on visibly better terms than the company's own recent norm, and the mix shift has just beg
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2019 call → NOWe need to determine if management indicates that the economic terms of new business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement has only begun to flow into reported results because most of the reported numbers still reflect older terms. We need to look for both halves: (1) new business terms improved vs own recent past, and (2) reported results still mostly reflect old terms. The transcript is about Autodesk's Q3 FY2019 earnings call. They discuss ARR, ARPS, subscriptions, etc. They mention strong growth in ARR, ARPS, etc. They also discuss the acquisition of PlanGrid. We need to see if management explicitly says that the terms of new business (e.g., pricing, contract sizes, renewal rates) have improved meaningfully and that this improvement is only beginning to flow into results. Look for statements about pricing, ARPS, renewal rates, etc. For example, they talk about ARPS growth driven by various factors like pricing adjustments, mix shift to collections, etc. They also mention that they expect ARPS to continue to increase. But do they say that the improvement is early in the numbers? They might say that the reported results still reflect older terms because the renewal base is growing, etc. Specifically, Scott Herren says: "Total AARPs posted another quarter of strong growth, as it continued to benefit from the same drivers we discussed at Investor Day and that we saw in Q2. These drivers include the growth of the renewal base, the ongoing strength of industry collections, and various pricing adjustments we made earlier in the year and are now having a greater influence on AARP’s." That suggests that pricing adjustments are having a greater influence now, but it doesn't necessarily say that the improvement is only beginning to flow in. He also says: "We expect total ARPS to continue to increase for all the reasons I have just discussed as we progressed through the transition and well beyond fiscal 2020." That suggests future improvement, but not necessarily that the reported results still mostly reflect old terms. Also, they talk about M2S program, conversions, etc. They mention that renewal rates for product subscriptions are increasing as the mix shifts toward higher value products.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTO | CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-28 | B |
| CARS | Cars.com Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-06 | B |
| BRX | Brixmor Property Group Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-02 | A |
| CRBG | Corebridge Financial, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-22 | B |
| FLR | Fluor Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-05 | D |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-03 | C |
| BRKL | Brookline Bancorp, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-30 | B+ |
| INVH | Invitation Homes Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-28 | B+ |
| MTB | M&T Bank Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-20 | B+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| GNK | Genco Shipping & Trading Limited | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-07 | A |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-26 | B+ |
CRL · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...YES Management's comments on Safety Assessment pricing and backlog directly address both required elements: they describe current bookings and backlog at "escalating prices" and "meaningful price increases" that are already achieved on real transactions (not targets or future expectations), while noting that the reported Q2 results are still dominated by older 2022 terms and that the stronger pricing is accelerating into H2 and 2023 bookings.
ESS · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...YES Management describes the loss-to-lease metric rising to 3.
CTO · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...