New business is being written on visibly better terms than the company's own recent norm, and the mix shift has just beg
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management indicates that the economic terms of new business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement has only begun to flow into reported results because most of the reported numbers still reflect older terms. The question is about the company's newest business. The company is Full House Resorts, which is building a new casino in Waukegan (temporary) and Chamonix in Colorado. The "newest business" likely refers to these new properties. But the question asks about "economic terms of the company's newest business — the prices, rates, fees, spreads, contract sizes, durations, or profitability at which its most recent deals, orders, contracts, renewals, or transactions are being struck." This could refer to the new casino's expected revenue, or perhaps to contracts like sports betting licenses, or other deals. Looking at the transcript, management discusses the Waukegan casino opening soon, and the Chamonix property. They talk about the potential revenue from Waukegan, but that's not yet open. They also discuss sports betting licenses. They mention that they have signed one in Illinois for $5 million a year, which exceeds the minimum guarantees on the other four. That is a new contract with better terms. But is that a "meaningful step up" from their own recent norm? They say Illinois is by far the most valuable because population is bigger, and the license is $5 million a year. They also mention that they are looking at contracting out the other two licenses. But the question is about the economic terms of new business stepping up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that improvement has only begun to flow into reported results. The transcript also discusses the cost of food, insurance, etc. But that's not about new business terms. Management talks about the new properties and their expected performance, but they are not yet open. So the "newest business" might be the new casino itself, but it's not yet generating revenue. The question asks about "deals, orders, contracts, renewals, or transactions" - so perhaps the sports betting license is a contract. They signed one in Illinois for $5 million a year, which is higher than the minimum guarantees on the other four. But is that a meaningful step up? They say it exceeds the minimum guarantees on the other four.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTO | CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-28 | B |
| CARS | Cars.com Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-06 | B |
| BRX | Brixmor Property Group Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-02 | A |
| CRBG | Corebridge Financial, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-22 | B |
| FLR | Fluor Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-05 | D |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-03 | C |
| BRKL | Brookline Bancorp, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-30 | B+ |
| INVH | Invitation Homes Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-28 | B+ |
| MTB | M&T Bank Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-20 | B+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| GNK | Genco Shipping & Trading Limited | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-07 | A |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-26 | B+ |
CRL · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...YES Management's comments on Safety Assessment pricing and backlog directly address both required elements: they describe current bookings and backlog at "escalating prices" and "meaningful price increases" that are already achieved on real transactions (not targets or future expectations), while noting that the reported Q2 results are still dominated by older 2022 terms and that the stronger pricing is accelerating into H2 and 2023 bookings.
ESS · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...YES Management describes the loss-to-lease metric rising to 3.
CTO · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...