New business is being written on visibly better terms than the company's own recent norm, and the mix shift has just beg
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement has only begun to flow into reported results because most of the business in the reported numbers was still written at older, less favorable terms. Let's analyze the transcript. The company is Upwork, a freelance marketplace. They discuss revenue growth, take rates, pricing changes, etc. Key points: - They mention "pricing and packaging structure changes" made in Q2. They say "we achieved our highest gross margin as a public company. And our marketplace takeaway was the highest, marketplace takeaway seems to be in a public company as well." This suggests improved economics from pricing changes. - They discuss take rates increasing. "Given the 90 basis points step up and take rates quarter-over-quarter. Can you help us understand the momentum and take rates and whether that content can continue from here, and then just given a greater success in terms of monetization, how do you feel about taking price as a growth lever from here?" Jeff McCombs responds: "Thanks, Andrew. Yes, great to see the nice increase in take rates, which is primarily driven by the pricing and packaging structure changes that we made in Q2. When we look at the longer-term horizon, where take rates would go, we do expect that they are -- they will likely be able to deliver additional value and drive increases in take rates for a variety of factors." He mentions enterprise growth, Project Catalog, etc. So they expect take rates to continue rising. But does this indicate that the improvement has only begun to flow into reported results? They say "we do expect that they are -- they will likely be able to deliver additional value and drive increases in take rates" - that's forward-looking. But they also say "great to see the nice increase in take rates" which is already happening. However, the question is about whether the reported results still mostly reflect old terms. They mention that the take rate increase is driven by pricing changes made in Q2. Since Q2 is the reported quarter, the change is already in the results. But they also say "we do expect that they will likely be able to deliver additional value and drive increases in take rates" - implying future increases.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTO | CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-28 | B |
| CARS | Cars.com Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-06 | B |
| BRX | Brixmor Property Group Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-02 | A |
| CRBG | Corebridge Financial, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-22 | B |
| FLR | Fluor Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-05 | D |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-03 | C |
| BRKL | Brookline Bancorp, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-30 | B+ |
| INVH | Invitation Homes Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-28 | B+ |
| MTB | M&T Bank Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-20 | B+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| GNK | Genco Shipping & Trading Limited | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-07 | A |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-26 | B+ |
CRL · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...YES Management's comments on Safety Assessment pricing and backlog directly address both required elements: they describe current bookings and backlog at "escalating prices" and "meaningful price increases" that are already achieved on real transactions (not targets or future expectations), while noting that the reported Q2 results are still dominated by older 2022 terms and that the stronger pricing is accelerating into H2 and 2023 bookings.
ESS · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...YES Management describes the loss-to-lease metric rising to 3.
CTO · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...