Priced like the old business, running like a new one: management is redirecting the call away from the metric investors
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2022 call → NOThe question asks whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional yardstick toward a different part of the business that is already earning, and indicates the record hasn't caught up. Let me analyze the transcript: 1. The conventional yardstick: The company's revenue, particularly total revenue, which has been declining. Analysts ask about revenue, pipeline, business model transformation completion, etc. 2. Management's response: They repeatedly emphasize recurring revenue as the key metric. Bob says "we are very encouraged by our ability to continually increase our recurring revenue which has increased $0.3 million in comparison to the first 9 months of last year to $7.1 million year-to-date." Dave says "69% of our Q3 revenue was recurring." They say "we believe recurring revenue is a bit more reflective indicator of the continued adoption of Knomi because our company's transition into subscription-based platform." 3. Is recurring revenue "already earning"? Yes, they describe it as actual revenue, $7.1 million year-to-date, 69% of Q3 revenue. They describe customers renewing at higher volumes, a customer going from 600,000-700,000 transactions to 2 million. 4. Does management indicate the record hasn't caught up? They say "As that percentage increases, we'll be able to speak to ARR as opposed to quarterly revenue." This suggests the current reporting is still based on quarterly revenue, not the recurring revenue that matters. They also say "the full year won't be at the 15% rate we previously anticipated" - acknowledging the headline revenue is down. Let me check if this fits the pattern: - Management identifies the conventional yardstick (total revenue, quarterly revenue) and sets it aside: They repeatedly steer toward recurring revenue as the better indicator. Dave says "we believe recurring revenue is a bit more reflective indicator" - this is setting aside the conventional revenue measure. - A different part of the business is put forward and already earning: Recurring revenue, $7.1 million year-to-date, 69% of Q3 revenue, customers renewing at higher volumes. This is real, actual revenue. - Management conveys the record hasn't caught up: They say they'll be able to speak to ARR as the percentage increases, implying the current reporting doesn't reflect the recurring revenue story.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAH | Noah Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-30 | D |
| DUOT | Duos Technologies Group, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-01 | F |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| CALX | Calix, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-04-20 | C+ |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| LC | LendingClub Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-26 | A |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LPTH | LightPath Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-09-09 | D |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-25 | C+ |
SPT · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure toward a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this diffe...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly reframing away from the conventional total ARR/revenue growth metric (which is being distorted by unpredictable low-end non-core ARR) toward the higher-quality up-market/enterprise segment that is already delivering record new business ACVs, 50%+ YoY growth, and 43% of 2023 ARR. They explicitly set the low-end aside by removing it from forecasts and modeling to give “greatest visibility,” note that Q2 ARR growth will be the lowest pace of the year because of this change, and indicate the reported figures still reflect the old mix while the new up-market story is already earning today (with Tagger adding further upside not yet reflected). This creates the coherent posture of redirecting attention from the headline growth number outsiders watch to the part of the business that is already producing real results.
WD · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure to a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this isn...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly reframing the discussion away from the conventional multifamily agency lender yardstick (origination volumes, GSE lending, MSR-driven EPS) toward the diversified services and asset-management businesses that are already generating substantial cash revenue and EBITDA today. They explicitly set the old metric aside by introducing adjusted EPS to “strip out non-cash mortgage servicing rights,” highlight the shift from “lending-centric” to “broader technology-enabled financial services,” and note that segment results now provide “more transparency into our operating structure.” They point to debt brokerage, property sales, SAM (Alliant, Zelman), small-balance lending, and appraisals as the new earning engines, describing their concrete contributions (e.g.
CALX · Q1 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure to a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this isn...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the company as operating in a "new market" centered on platforms, clouds, and managed services—distinct from the legacy hardware/cyclical model—while highlighting real earnings from these areas (e.g., 988 BSPs deploying platforms, 865 cloud customers, 334 with 41 new managed services in Q1, record Intelligent Access EDGE revenue). They indicate this is already producing revenue and customer adoption but remains early-stage ("this is the beginning," "early stage of where we are in this new market"), with reported results still reflecting the prior hardware-focused picture.