Priced like the old business, running like a new one: management is redirecting the call away from the metric investors
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOThe user asks me to determine whether management on this earnings call repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional yardstick and toward a different part of the business that is already earning, while indicating the record hasn't caught up. Let me analyze the transcript carefully. The company is CME Group, an exchange/derivatives marketplace. The conventional yardstick for CME would be trading volumes (ADV - average daily volume) and revenue from trading activity. Let me look at what management emphasizes: 1. Terry Duffy's opening remarks focus on trading activity - ADV up 25%, equity index products, interest rates, FX volumes, options volumes, non-US volumes, SOFR transition, new products, the S&P Dow Jones Indices investment. 2. The investment in S&P Dow Jones Indices JV - $410 million to fund acquisition of IHS Markit Indices business. This is mentioned but seems like a strategic investment, not a redirection of the yardstick. 3. John Pietrowicz discusses revenue, expenses, tax rate, EPS - all conventional metrics. 4. In Q&A, questions cover: the S&P JV investment, margin deposits at the Fed, expenses, SOFR/LIBOR transition, international ADV, BrokerTec/EBS (legacy NEX businesses), OTC to exchange-traded shift, market data, cloud migration, retail participation, energy volumes, metals business, interest rate futures. Now, is there a pattern where management sets aside the conventional yardstick (trading volumes/revenue) and points to something else that's already earning? Let me look for this pattern: - On the BrokerTec/EBS question (Alex Blostein), management discusses the legacy NEX businesses. Sean Tully talks about BrokerTec volumes up, EBS migration to Globex. John Pietrowicz talks about the joint venture with S&P Global for post-trade processing. This is about the optimization/post-trade business. But is this presented as "the thing to watch instead of the conventional yardstick"? Not really - it's answering a question about those specific businesses. - On the interest rate futures question (Alex Kramm at the end), Terry Duffy and John Pietrowicz defend the growth in rates. They don't redirect to a different part of the business. - On the SOFR/LIBOR transition question, Sean Tully discusses SOFR futures and options adoption, term SOFR licensing.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAH | Noah Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-30 | D |
| DUOT | Duos Technologies Group, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-01 | F |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| CALX | Calix, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-04-20 | C+ |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| LC | LendingClub Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-26 | A |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LPTH | LightPath Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-09-09 | D |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-25 | C+ |
SPT · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure toward a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this diffe...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly reframing away from the conventional total ARR/revenue growth metric (which is being distorted by unpredictable low-end non-core ARR) toward the higher-quality up-market/enterprise segment that is already delivering record new business ACVs, 50%+ YoY growth, and 43% of 2023 ARR. They explicitly set the low-end aside by removing it from forecasts and modeling to give “greatest visibility,” note that Q2 ARR growth will be the lowest pace of the year because of this change, and indicate the reported figures still reflect the old mix while the new up-market story is already earning today (with Tagger adding further upside not yet reflected). This creates the coherent posture of redirecting attention from the headline growth number outsiders watch to the part of the business that is already producing real results.
WD · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure to a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this isn...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly reframing the discussion away from the conventional multifamily agency lender yardstick (origination volumes, GSE lending, MSR-driven EPS) toward the diversified services and asset-management businesses that are already generating substantial cash revenue and EBITDA today. They explicitly set the old metric aside by introducing adjusted EPS to “strip out non-cash mortgage servicing rights,” highlight the shift from “lending-centric” to “broader technology-enabled financial services,” and note that segment results now provide “more transparency into our operating structure.” They point to debt brokerage, property sales, SAM (Alliant, Zelman), small-balance lending, and appraisals as the new earning engines, describing their concrete contributions (e.g.
CALX · Q1 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure to a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this isn...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the company as operating in a "new market" centered on platforms, clouds, and managed services—distinct from the legacy hardware/cyclical model—while highlighting real earnings from these areas (e.g., 988 BSPs deploying platforms, 865 cloud customers, 334 with 41 new managed services in Q1, record Intelligent Access EDGE revenue). They indicate this is already producing revenue and customer adoption but remains early-stage ("this is the beginning," "early stage of where we are in this new market"), with reported results still reflecting the prior hardware-focused picture.