Priced like the old business, running like a new one: management is redirecting the call away from the metric investors
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOThe question asks whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional yardstick toward a different part of the business that is already earning today, and indicates the record hasn't caught up. Let me analyze the transcript. The company is EVgo, an EV charging network operator. The conventional yardstick for such a company would be network throughput, charging revenue, stalls in operation, etc. Looking at the call, management discusses: - Operational success (stalls placed, throughput) - Commercial progress (partnerships) - Regulatory front - Technology innovation The key part is the EVgo eXtend model, particularly the Pilot/GM partnership. Let me look at what management says about this. Cathy Zoi: "In addition to the procurement and installation associated with this contract, recall that EVgo will also be servicing these assets after installation, providing operational and maintenance support, technology assistance on the hardware and software side and running the charging network. Since we've been a public company we've always discussed with investors our laser focus on profitability in the business and making investments only with a clear our internal rate of return or margin hurdles, and this agreement exceeds those hurdles." Olga Shevorenkova: "Turning to our new EVgo eXtend partnership with Pilot Company and General Motors. The agreement calls for the construction of up to approximately 2,000 fast charge installed primarily over the next few years and up to 500 pilot and Flying J locations across the United States. We have not disclosed the terms of this deal, but I would like to draw your attention to the cash flow profile of our core, developed owned operate model versus a new eXtend model. In the annual cash flow examples you see here and this is for 2023 vintage projects in both cases, the year zero cash flows are negative, in the core, developed, owned operate model as you would expect, due to the incurrence of capital expenditures and then turned positive in year one as the project grows operational. Those cash flows are recurring in nature and grow over the life of the project as more EVs are on the road, throughput increases and the operating leverage is being realized. To the eXtend model, EviGo sees positive cash flow immediately.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAH | Noah Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-30 | D |
| DUOT | Duos Technologies Group, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-01 | F |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| CALX | Calix, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-04-20 | C+ |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| LC | LendingClub Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-26 | A |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LPTH | LightPath Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-09-09 | D |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-25 | C+ |
SPT · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure toward a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this diffe...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly reframing away from the conventional total ARR/revenue growth metric (which is being distorted by unpredictable low-end non-core ARR) toward the higher-quality up-market/enterprise segment that is already delivering record new business ACVs, 50%+ YoY growth, and 43% of 2023 ARR. They explicitly set the low-end aside by removing it from forecasts and modeling to give “greatest visibility,” note that Q2 ARR growth will be the lowest pace of the year because of this change, and indicate the reported figures still reflect the old mix while the new up-market story is already earning today (with Tagger adding further upside not yet reflected). This creates the coherent posture of redirecting attention from the headline growth number outsiders watch to the part of the business that is already producing real results.
WD · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure to a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this isn...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly reframing the discussion away from the conventional multifamily agency lender yardstick (origination volumes, GSE lending, MSR-driven EPS) toward the diversified services and asset-management businesses that are already generating substantial cash revenue and EBITDA today. They explicitly set the old metric aside by introducing adjusted EPS to “strip out non-cash mortgage servicing rights,” highlight the shift from “lending-centric” to “broader technology-enabled financial services,” and note that segment results now provide “more transparency into our operating structure.” They point to debt brokerage, property sales, SAM (Alliant, Zelman), small-balance lending, and appraisals as the new earning engines, describing their concrete contributions (e.g.
CALX · Q1 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure to a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this isn...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the company as operating in a "new market" centered on platforms, clouds, and managed services—distinct from the legacy hardware/cyclical model—while highlighting real earnings from these areas (e.g., 988 BSPs deploying platforms, 865 cloud customers, 334 with 41 new managed services in Q1, record Intelligent Access EDGE revenue). They indicate this is already producing revenue and customer adoption but remains early-stage ("this is the beginning," "early stage of where we are in this new market"), with reported results still reflecting the prior hardware-focused picture.