Priced like the old business, running like a new one: management is redirecting the call away from the metric investors
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional yardstick and toward a different part of the business that is already earning, and conveys that the record has not caught up. The conventional yardstick for Macy's is likely comparable sales, net sales, or overall company performance. Management does discuss these, but they also emphasize five growth vectors: private brands, off-mall stores, marketplace, luxury, and personalization. They say these are driving future growth and that they are investing in them. They also mention that they are targeting sales growth beginning in 2024, implying that current results don't reflect these vectors fully. But do they set aside the conventional yardstick? They still report net sales, comps, etc. They don't say "don't look at comps, look at these vectors." They do say that the growth vectors will drive future growth, but they are not yet reflected in results. However, they are not saying that the conventional yardstick is no longer relevant; they are just adding new drivers. They also mention that they are in early innings of these growth factors. The question asks: does management repeatedly redirect attention away from the measure or storyline by which the company is conventionally judged and toward a different part of the business that it says is already earning today? And does management indicate that this different part is not yet what the company's reported results or outside understanding reflect? In the call, management discusses the five growth vectors as key to future growth. They provide proof points: private brands INC up 28% in Q4, off-mall stores comps up 8% and 12%, marketplace launched with 500 brands, luxury record sales, personalization tests. These are already earning. But they also say that these are not yet reflected in the overall results because they are still scaling. For example, they say "We are currently targeting low single-digit annual net sales and comparable owned plus license sales growth beginning in 2024" implying that 2023 will be a decline. So the record has not caught up. But do they set aside the conventional yardstick? They still talk about comps and net sales as the primary metrics. They don't say "ignore comps, look at these vectors." They are adding to the discussion, not replacing.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAH | Noah Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-30 | D |
| DUOT | Duos Technologies Group, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-01 | F |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| CALX | Calix, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-04-20 | C+ |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| LC | LendingClub Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-26 | A |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LPTH | LightPath Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-09-09 | D |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-25 | C+ |
SPT · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure toward a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this diffe...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly reframing away from the conventional total ARR/revenue growth metric (which is being distorted by unpredictable low-end non-core ARR) toward the higher-quality up-market/enterprise segment that is already delivering record new business ACVs, 50%+ YoY growth, and 43% of 2023 ARR. They explicitly set the low-end aside by removing it from forecasts and modeling to give “greatest visibility,” note that Q2 ARR growth will be the lowest pace of the year because of this change, and indicate the reported figures still reflect the old mix while the new up-market story is already earning today (with Tagger adding further upside not yet reflected). This creates the coherent posture of redirecting attention from the headline growth number outsiders watch to the part of the business that is already producing real results.
WD · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure to a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this isn...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly reframing the discussion away from the conventional multifamily agency lender yardstick (origination volumes, GSE lending, MSR-driven EPS) toward the diversified services and asset-management businesses that are already generating substantial cash revenue and EBITDA today. They explicitly set the old metric aside by introducing adjusted EPS to “strip out non-cash mortgage servicing rights,” highlight the shift from “lending-centric” to “broader technology-enabled financial services,” and note that segment results now provide “more transparency into our operating structure.” They point to debt brokerage, property sales, SAM (Alliant, Zelman), small-balance lending, and appraisals as the new earning engines, describing their concrete contributions (e.g.
CALX · Q1 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure to a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this isn...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the company as operating in a "new market" centered on platforms, clouds, and managed services—distinct from the legacy hardware/cyclical model—while highlighting real earnings from these areas (e.g., 988 BSPs deploying platforms, 865 cloud customers, 334 with 41 new managed services in Q1, record Intelligent Access EDGE revenue). They indicate this is already producing revenue and customer adoption but remains early-stage ("this is the beginning," "early stage of where we are in this new market"), with reported results still reflecting the prior hardware-focused picture.