Priced like the old business, running like a new one: management is redirecting the call away from the metric investors
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2024 call → NOWe need to determine if management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional yardstick toward a different part of the business that is already earning, and indicates the record hasn't caught up. Let's analyze the transcript. The company is AVITA Medical, with RECELL for burns and full-thickness skin defects. The conventional yardstick is likely commercial revenue, particularly from burns and full-thickness skin defects. The call discusses a disappointing Q1 revenue of $11.1 million, below expectations. Management discusses challenges: slower conversion of new accounts for full-thickness skin defects, and a decline in burns business. They also discuss new initiatives: PermeaDerm (a wound care product) launched in March, and RECELL GO (a device) pending FDA approval. They also discuss expanding into a broad wound care company with wound bed preparation and dermal replacement products. The question: Does management repeatedly redirect attention away from the measure/storyline by which the company is conventionally judged (likely revenue from RECELL for burns and full-thickness skin defects) and toward a different part of the business that is already earning today? And does management indicate that this different part is not yet what the company's reported results or outside understanding reflect? Let's look for evidence. Management discusses the disappointing quarter, but then pivots to "our growth trajectory" and "transforming AVITA Medical from a single product focus of RECELL to a broad wound care management company." They talk about exploring wound bed preparation and dermal replacement products. They mention PermeaDerm launched in the U.S. on March 23. They say "our portfolio includes RECELL for epidermal replacement and our co-branded dressing PermeaDerm." They describe a continuum of clinical needs and how these products are compatible. They say "Collectively, these products align with our vision to build a broad-based wound care company." They also discuss international expansion and RECELL GO, but RECELL GO is pending approval. PermeaDerm is already launched and generating revenue (though less than 1% of revenue in Q1). They also mention that they expect to execute distributor agreements in EU and Australia, but that's future.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAH | Noah Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-30 | D |
| DUOT | Duos Technologies Group, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-01 | F |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| CALX | Calix, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-04-20 | C+ |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| LC | LendingClub Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-26 | A |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LPTH | LightPath Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-09-09 | D |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-25 | C+ |
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